NCAAF Betting Point Spread – Temple vs Penn State

The NCAAF betting against the spread line in the Temple vs. Penn State game is slightly off in my opinion.

Before getting into that, let me just say that Penn State bounced back very well last Saturday after getting spanked by the awesome Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 2. I also want to say that I love Joe Paterno and wish that somebody could cryogenically freeze him in 20 years, when he’s finally ready to retire, so that we can keep him forever. No, seriously, Joe Pa rocks.

Okay, now that those two things are out of the way, I’m going to analyze this game and explain why the Nittany Lions might be in trouble ATS versus the NCAAF betting lines, in this game.

Temple Owls at #20 Penn State Nittany Lions

Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania

When: September 25 th, 2010 at 3:30 pm EST

TV: Big Ten Network

NCAAF Betting Lines

Temple Owls +14 -110

Penn State Nittany Lions -14 -110

The NCAAF betting trends say that the Owls have a shot, maybe not a great shot but a shot, against the spread in this game.

• The Temple Owls are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
• The Temple Owls are 2 and 6 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
• The Temple Owls are 11 and 5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• The Penn State Nittany Lions are 1 and 7 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
• The Penn State Nittany Lions are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS victory.

At first glance it appears that Temple has no shot to cover the spread and that an NCAAF betting prediction handing the Nittany Lions at least a 15-point victory makes sense. Then, a deeper look into both teams records and stats and all of a sudden it looks like Penn State is an underlay bet to cover 14 points against Temple.

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Oh, sure, the trends give the Nittany Lions the upper hand in this game on Saturday, but Penn State is a team in transition. Not only do they have a freshman QB in Rob Bolden running the show but they have committed 8 turnovers in only 3 games. They’ve also averaged only 147 yards on the ground against Youngstown State and Kent State, two teams that they should have wailed on with their ground attack.

Overall, with the exception of Penn State playing against #1 Alabama, the Owls have played, and beaten, the better opponents. Villanova, whom Temple beat in Week 1 31 to 24, is a sub-division team, but they’re the best sub-division team in the country. ‘Nova won their next two games after the Temple loss by outscoring their opposition 77 to 7.

Central Michigan, whom Temple beat in their second game 13 to 10 in overtime, have scored 85 points in their other two games this season while keeping their opposition to 14 total points. Then there’s the Connecticut Huskies whom Temple beat 30 to 16 straight up as 4 ½ point dogs last Saturday.

The NCAAF betting online odds just aren’t giving Temple their just due in this game. Penn State has found a way to look very good against Youngstown State and Kent State as big time favorites, but now they face a team that has beaten three good teams in a row by playing both great defense and great offense.

I believe that the Owls go into Happy Valley and force Bolden into turning the ball over at least twice in this game. That should be enough for Temple to keep this game within the NCAAF betting expert odds line.

NCAAF Betting Pick: Temple Owls +14 -110

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