NCAAF Betting Picks – Pittsburgh Can See BCS Slot

As we evaluate our NCAAF betting picks for this week, we can focus on a Thursday game in which the Pittsburgh Panthers, can see their way to a Big East title and the BCS slot that goes with it, have a tough road assignment as they take on the Huskies of Connecticut in an ESPN-televised feature.

Kickoff is slated for 7:30 PM ET at Rentschler Field (natural turf) in Hartford. In the college football odds for this game, Pittsburgh is the 5.5-point favorite, with the total listed at 46.5 points. It is using these numbers that we will make our NCAAF betting picks for this game.

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Pittsburgh Panthers (5-3 SU, 4-1-2 ATS) at Connecticut Huskies (4-4 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Live at Rentschler Field

Hartford, CT

Thursday, November 11 — 7:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

College Football Betting Odds:

Pittsburgh -5.5
Connecticut +5.5
Total 46.5

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our NCAAF betting picks on this game:

· Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games
· Pittsburgh has won four of its last five games SU
· Pittsburgh has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
· Connecticut has won eight of its last 12 games SU
· Connecticut has won its last six home games SU

Key stats for Pittsburgh — The Panthers rank eighth in the country in rushing defense, and they allow slightly less than three yards a carry, and when you talk about NCAAF betting picks, that can be a factor against a ground-oriented UConn team.

Dave Wannstedt’s unit has also held opponents to nine touchdown passes, and helping that along is a pass rush that has sacked the quarterback 32 times. They have yielded just below 300 yards a game as well.

Pittsburgh is well-equipped to wage the battle of field position; Dan Hutchins is fourth in the nation in punting, and the Panthers are second in net punting (gaining close to 42 yards per kick).

Key stats for Connecticut — The Huskies can count the defensive line among their strengths. They have registered 20 sacks of the quarterback and rank tenth in the nation in the category of tackles for loss.

UConn has allowed opponents to complete 58% of their passes. Running back Jordan Todman is fourth nationally in yards per game, averaging 136.3. But the Huskies are 102nd in the country in passing offense, with 164 yards per contest.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our NCAAF betting picks on this game:

· Connecticut has covered four of the last six meetings
· Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total

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Pittsburgh has lost only three times this season – to Utah (an overtime defeat), Notre Dame and Miami. But they have thus far been flawless in Big East platy, and over the last few weeks they have looked nothing short of devastating.

The Panthers have defeated an improved Syracuse team by 31 points, then throttled Rutgers 41-21 and beat Louisville, another much-improved team, by a 20-3 count twelve days ago. Based on recent performances and apparent fundamental edges, you could do a lot worse with an NCAAF betting pick.

But let’s not discount that under Randy Edsall, the Huskies have always possessed a certain amount of mental toughness, and they also have two elements that are very important when getting points at home – defense and a rushing game, and those have to be measured with a certain amount of nuance when analyzing an NCAAF betting pick.

Jordan Todman banged out 113 yards against another strong defensive line (West Virginia) last time out, and that was another game where UConn didn’t appear to have a whole lot in the way of matchup edges. In that contest they went back to the experienced hand of QB Zach Frazer, after turning to freshman Michael Box.

Pittsburgh is two games ahead in the Big East, and may indeed go to a BCS bowl game, but there is something about this program in the era of Dave Wannstedt that gives us pause; they tease, but they invariably fall short.

Yes, they have the talent, but UConn may have the edge in heart and resourcefulness here. And they also hold a technical edge, in that the Huskies have covered eleven of their last 13 as a home dog.

That illustrates our point. We’re going with UConn as our NCAAF betting pick for Thursday action, grabbing 5.5 points in the college football odds.

JAY’S PLAY: CONNECTICUT +5.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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