NCAAF Betting Lock Alert – ECU vs Marshall

It’s another weekend of NCAAF Betting, and this week we have a Conference USA showdown between the East Carolina Pirates and Marshall Thundering Herd. The Pirates have been playing some solid football this season, and the big reason has been the play of former Boston College quarterback Dominique Davis, who leads the conference in passing. Marshall, on the other hand, hasn’t been able to get much going this year, especially on the road which doesn’t make for a very competitive contest this Saturday.

Marshall Thundering Herd vs. East Carolina Pirates (Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium – Greenville, NC)
Saturday October 23rd – 4:15 PM ET
TV: WITN/CSS

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The Pirates have gone 3-0 so far in C-USA play and take on a Marshall team that only has one victory on the year. Marshall lost to Central Florida last week by a 35-14 margin and have to go on the road to take on a very explosive Pirates team that has beaten them four of the last five times they’ve played one another. Another loss would drop the Herd to 0-3 in the conference, pretty much eliminating them from any form of post-season football.

NCAAF Betting Spread:
Marshall – PS +11 ½ (-110) ML +350
ECU – PS -11½ (-110) ML -450
Total – 61 ½

The biggest problem for Marshall, their lack of offence, has been the Pirates greatest strength. While the Herd average less than 300 total yards per contest and just 18 points per game, the Pirates are getting that kind of offensive output from their quarterback alone. Dominique Davis has been lights out all year, throwing for 1,815 yards and 16 touchdowns so far. Against NC State last weekend, he was on point again, throwing for 376 yards and two TD’s.

But true to Conference USA form, the Pirates have been giving up a lot of points as well. They don’t have much to worry about against Marshall, but their 39.5 ppg average is something they’ll need to clean up if they want to secure another conference title. They have been particularly vulnerable against the run, giving up 185 ypg, so this week will likely be spent working on the defensive side of the ball considering their offence doesn’t appear to need much work.

Here are some NCAAF Betting Trends for this matchup:

• Pirates are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
• Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 conference games.
• Over is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Looking at the NCAAF Betting Trends and you’ll see that the Pirates have been covering their spreads of late, and with Marshall coming in not having been able to compete on the road, it appears that a 11 ½-point spread shouldn’t be too difficult to cover. Considering how well Davis has been throwing the ball for ECU, I see them running away with this one, making it a lock pick in your NCAAF Betting matchups this Saturday.

NCAAF Betting: ECU (-11 ½)