NCAAF Betting – Wisconsin Looks to Protect National Ranking

Those engaged in NCAAF betting know that there is a group of four unbeaten teams that are at the top of the rankings, and still in the running to go to the BCS title game, and not far below them are the Wisconsin Badgers, who have just one loss and sit in fifth position in the coaches’ poll. On Saturday Wisconsin takes on the Indiana Hoosiers, in Big Ten action that is set to get underway at Noon ET at Camp Randall Stadium (artificial turf) in Madison, WI. The Badgers are a 21-point favorite in the NCAAF betting odds, with the total on the game posted at 57 points.

Indiana Hoosiers (4-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) at Wisconsin Badgers (8-1 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Live at Camp Randall Stadium

Madison, WI
Saturday, November 13 — Noon ET
TV: ESPN2

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NCAAF Betting Odds:

Wisconsin -21
Indiana +21
Total 57

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Here are some of the trends as they might impact our NCAAF betting advice on this game:

• Indiana has lost five of its last six games SU
• Indiana has lost 15 of its last 17 road games SU
• Indiana has played seven of its last ten road games OVER the total
• Wisconsin has won ten of its last eleven games SU
• Wisconsin has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• Wisconsin has won its last seven home games SU

Key stats for Indiana — The Hoosier offense is not well-balanced. They are ranked eleventh in the nation in passing offense (303 ypg) and 111th in rushing (97 ypg). You can certainly say that this team has done a good job of protecting its passer, as Ben Chappell has been sacked only eight times. Chappell’s got 18 TD passes and just eight interceptions. Tandon Doss is ranked tenth in the country in all-purpose offense, at slightly under 162 yards a game. Indiana has only seven interceptions of its own, and has also surrendered more than five yards a carry, and this may loom large in NCAAF betting for this week.

Key stats for Wisconsin — The Badgers gain 216 yards on the ground per game, and are ranked 16th in the nation in that category. John Clay has averaged 103 yards a game out of the backfield. Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzein is 19th in the country in passing efficiency, and has been picked off just five times. Wisconsin is also 19th in the nation in scoring, and 24th in scoring defense. Their rushing defense would hardly seem to matter in this game, but it has allowed just 3.7 yards an attempt and four TD’s.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our NCAAF betting advice on this game:

• Wisconsin has won the last five meetings SU
• Six of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total
• Wisconsin has won four of the last five meetings SU as the home team

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It certainly looks as if the Indiana defense has stiffened over the last couple of games, doesn’t it? The Hoosiers gave up just 20 points to an offensively-capable Northwestern club and 18 to the Iowa Hawkeyes, but over those two games they allowed 825 yards. Wisconsin has covered its last three games in NCAAF betting despite being outgained on an overall basis by the opposition.

From the looks of things, Wisconsin should be able to extract quite an advantage by running the football. Playing Purdue last week was difficult because the Badgers were coming off back-to-back wins over Ohio State and Iowa, then a bye week to get stale, and they were flat coming out, trailing the crippled Boilermakers 10-6 at the half before rallying for a 21-point win. As long as Indiana has Chappell firing away, and two weapons like Damario Belcher and Tandon Doss on the receiving end, they are a threat to come in though the backdoor. In a small play, we’ll take points with Indiana in NCAAF betting for Saturday.

JAY’S PLAY: INDIANA +21 *
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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