NCAA Tournament Predictions – How Do the Conferences Stack Up In the Big Dance

As you are on the road to making your NCAA Tournament predictions, maybe it would help to know how the various conferences stack up in the Big Dance. Well, we’ve got some of that information for you, and some of that may be surprising. For example, it may interest you that the SEC has been a strong conference against the number through the last several years, while the Big East, which put eleven teams into the Big Dance this year, has under-achieved. This is information we have by our side when making some of our NCAA tournament predictions, and perhaps you can out it to some use for yourself.

Let’s be honest – when it comes to college basketball, the Big East is far and away the best conference; the one with a conference slate that is so grinding that no less an authority than legendary coach (and now commentator) Bob Knight has been heard to suggest that winning that conference tournament might actually be a more difficult feat than winning the NCAA Tournament.

When you consider NCAA tournament predictions, however, take into account that Big East teams have not thrived against the odds. We don’t want to dredge up ancient history, but over the last five seasons, the conference has gone just 38-50-1 ATS. That means those teams have been just a 43% covering proposition. Generally speaking, they have been an overpriced favorite, as maybe the reputation has preceded them a little too much. But Big East teams have not made for profitable NCAA Tournament predictions as a dog either, going 9-15 ATS in that role.

On the other end of what might be considered the "Big Six" conferences, the SEC has done a pretty good job. Although it hasn’t been known as one of the deepest conferences in recent years, there have been enough stalwarts in this league to bring a 35-24 ATS record in the Dance since 2006. They’ve been a 58% proposition as a favorite, so that would seem to bode well if you’re making NCAA Tournament predictions for the likes of Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, all of which will be laying points in the opening round of play.

The Mountain West has gone just 5-10-1 ATS in the last five years, and that is largely on the strength (or should we say weakness?) in what BYU has done. Butler’s success as a profitable NCAA Tournament prediction has propelled the Horizon League to an 11-6 ATS record, and the Sun Belt has covered five of eight games.

Among the highest achievers in the "small major" category are the Southern Conference, represented by Wofford this year, which is a strong 15-7 ATS since 1994, and the Ohio Valley, which brings Morehead State into this year’s Big Dance, with a 12-7 ATS mark. The America East (where Boston University is this year’s entrant) has failed miserably; covering just five of the last 19 times it has faced off in the tournament.

And as we are talking about the smaller conferences, it might be worthwhile to go over their straight-up records. The SWAC (Alabama State) has lost 17 of its last 18 games, while the Atlantic Sun, with Belmont this year, has lost 18 of the last 20 appearances SU. Teams that are seeded #16 in this tournament have lost 104 straight times, and those that have been seeded 15th are 4-104 SU.

Keep in mind, however, that double-digit favorites went just 6-8 ATS in last year’s tourney, so there were indeed some successful NCAA Tournament predictions that came from the bottom of the heap!