NCAA Football Wagering – #4 Penn State Looking to Extract revenge on Iowa

The fourth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS, 0-3 O/U) will be looking to keep their undefeated record unblemished while extracting some major revenge when they host the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U) at Beaver Stadium on Saturday at 8 PM ET.

The Hawkeyes kept their own regular season record prefect by beating  the Arizona Wildcats 27-17 in Week 3 as Adam Robinson rushed for 101 yards and one touchdown to help Iowa pull out the victory with 10 fourth-quarter points.

The Hawkeyes managed to cover the NCAAF betting odds as 4-point home favorites while the game’s final score played Over the 41-point O/U total.

The Nittany Lions crushed Temple last week as Daryll Clark completed 16 of 26 passes for 167 yards and two touchdowns and Evan Royster rushed for 136 yards on 20 carries.

Penn State failed to cover the NCAAF betting odds as whopping 29.5-point home favorites while the game’s 37 total points played Under the game’s 48-point O/U total.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and college football betting odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NCAAF Free Picks.

• Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
• Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Hawkeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Penn State.
• Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Underdog is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

NCAAF Odds

• Iowa Hawkeyes +10 -110
• Penn State Nittany Lions -10 -110
• Over 40 -110
• Under 40 -110

Analysis: With this matchup being a contest that is worthy of careful consideration, I thought long and hard about my selection in this Big Ten showdown.

First and foremost, I think the fourth-ranked Nittany Lions are coming into this matchup with some added motivation after dropping what appeared to be a sure-fire win in Iowa last season, losing 24-23 on Daniel Murray’s 31-yard field goal with one second remaining in regulation.

However, I like the Iowa Hawkeyes to cover what I believe is a point spread that is a bit too big for such a steady defensive team in the Hawkeyes.

Iowa has posted some absolutely spectacular ATS wagering numbers coming into this contest, going an impressive 6-0 ATS against a team with a winning record, 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an SU win and an identical 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Making this an even easier call for me is the fact that Penn State has been absolutely horrific in covering the spread recently.

The Nittany Lions have gone a dismal 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an SU win and an identical 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.

While the Iowa Hawkeyes have gone an absolutely blistering 7-1 ATS in their last eight road game, the Nittany Lions have gone a disappointing 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

The Hawkeyes have also gone 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Penn State and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings overall while the underdog has gone a solid 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings overall.

If this spread were a bit closer to six points, I’d think about taking the Nittany Lions to cover. As it stand, I think 9.5-points is a bit too much for Penn State to cover.

Take the Iowa Hawkeyes to cover the spread in a narrow loss.

NCAAF Free Picks: Iowa Hawkeyes +9½ Points