NCAA Football Odds – Mississippi State vs. Auburn

BetOnline NCAA Football Odds: AUBURN -14, Total 41

We can only hope this year’s game is better than last year’s 3-2 snooze fest at Starkville where Auburn won on a second quarter field goal, holding the Bulldogs to six first downs and 116 yards of offense. This year, in a move that they think will improve their NCAA betting odds, MSU has gone to the spread offense which should mean more offensive output.

The Bulldogs looked good in their 45-7 opening day win over Jackson State, accumulating 410 yards of offense, don’t get too excited. We’re probably a little more impressed with Auburn’s 37-13 pasting of Louisiana Tech, which came with 556 yards of offense in Gus Malzahn’s retooled attack.

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• MSU has covered one of its last seven road games
• MSU has lost its last seven road games SU
• MSU has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
• AUB has lost six of its last eight games SU
• AUB has won 10 of its last 13 home games SU

Also….

• AUB has covered five of the last seven meetings
• AUB has won seven of the last eight meetings SU
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total

People who follow the NCAA football odds know that Gene Chizik came from a failure as head coach at Iowa State, but did so with a new attitude, and some new help on the staff. Chizik, who was formerly defensive coordinator at Auburn, brought in Ted Roof, a great defensive coordinator in his own right. He didn’t have a major rebuilding process to do on D because even through all their troubles last year, Auburn could still stop people, allowing just 18 points per game. It is on offense that the major move was made, as Malzahn was brought over from Tulsa, where he had the Golden Hurricane offense playing pinball with opponents and tilting the NCAA football odds in their favor. Tony Stewart, who had a spread offense installed, didn’t have great personnel and was ousted midway through is first season, as he and Tommy Tuberville just weren’t on the same page. Malzahn has a smoother ride, and it looks like QB Chris Todd may just flourish in the new setup. Ontario McCalebb had a great game last week, and he and Ben Tate could make for a dynamite combination in Auburn’s backfield.

Mississippi State, which was just 4-7 ATS in the NCAA football odds last year, may be doing something similar to what Auburn tried to do last year, which is install a high-energy spread offense. The new coach is Dan Mullen, who was Florida’s offensive coordinator. There is probably going to be a difficult transition, as MSU did not have high-quality offensive personnel last year, ranking 113th nationally in total offense. Although Tyson Lee, the first-team QB, played the spread in high school and the JUCO ranks, he doesn’t have people around him who did, and that doesn’t necessarily help MSU in the NCAA football odds. Lee removed himself from last year’s game with shoulder spasms and will probably split time with backup Chris Relf this week.

In a bit of trivia, Auburn has played three times on September 12 in its history, and outscored opponents 121-0 in those games. Hmmm. Auburn is further along on the defensive side, and may have a head start on pumping up its offense as well. Mullen goes through some growing pains as the Tigers overplay the run, and Auburn pulls away in the second half. We’ll lay the points with the Tigers, the 14-point favorites in the BetOnline NCAA football odds.

JAY’S PLAY: AUBURN -14 **

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