NCAA Football Odds – Indiana vs Ohio State

If you are analyzing NCAA football odds, you have to concede that the Indiana Hoosiers are going into the "Horseshoe" in Columbus with a lot to overcome, in terms of the dominance Ohio State has had over them.

On Saturday they try again, in a game that is scheduled to kick off at Noon ET at Ohio Stadium (artificial turf). In the NCAA football odds, Ohio State is a 21.5-point favorite, with the total on the game posted at 57.5 points. We’ll issue our football betting prediction based on those numbers.

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Indiana Hoosiers (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS)

Live at Ohio Stadium
Columbus, O.
Saturday, October 9 — Noon ET
TV: ESPN (HD)

NCAA Football Odds:

Ohio State -21.5
Indiana +21.5
Total 57.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact the college football lines on this game:

• Indiana has lost nine of its last 13 games SU
• Indiana has lost 13 of its last 15 road games SU
• Indiana has played six of its last eight road games OVER the total
• Ohio State has won its last eleven games SU
• Ohio State has covered nine of its last eleven games
• Ohio State has played its last six home games OVER the total

Key stats for Indiana — The Hoosiers are fourth in the nation in passing offense, averaging 348 yards a game. Quarterback Ben Chappell ranks 12th in the country in pass efficiency, completing almost 72% of his passes. He’s thrown twelve TD’s with only one interception.

Key stats for Ohio State that may affect the NCAA football odds — The Buckeyes have demonstrated the ability to control the line of scrimmage. They are ranked 14th in the country in rushing offense, racking up just shy of 235 yards a game, with Terrelle Pryor leading the way from the quarterback position (373 yards).

At the same time, they are also eighth in the country in rushing defense, and the 2.78 yards per carry they have allowed is 14th. Only four teams have permitted fewer yards per game than Ohio State on an overall basis.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our football betting prediction on this game:

• Ohio State has won the last five meetings SU
• Ohio State has covered seven of the last eight meetings
• Ohio State has covered the last five meetings

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What you’ve probably got to concern yourself with here is whether the impost afforded to Indiana in the NCAA football odds is sizable enough that they can slip under it in "backdoor" fashion.

Clearly Chappell can execute the "Pistol" offense well enough, and one of the reasons is that he is not at all unfamiliar with the spread, so the transition may have been easier. It doesn’t hurt him that he has some real talent at the receiver position, with Tandon Doss and Damario Belcher combining for almost 700 yards.

Maybe the question – or at least one of them – involves whether these guys will stay in the game if it gets out of hand. if they are, Indiana can certainly score some "garbage" points, which will give them a much better shot at covering in the NCAA football odds.

What we’re not so confident about is that Pryor, who is a huge part of the OSU offense, would be playing for gratuitous numbers after straining his left quadriceps against Illinois last week.

Jim Tressel will be well-advised to give him some rest if he gets the chance, with a critical Big Ten game against Wisconsin coming next. Without Pryor, Ohio State is still good, but maybe not as much of a "pull-away" offense.

The OSU secondary is vulnerable, and potentially that gets exacerbated with the injury loss of Tyler Moeller. Maybe the Hoosiers take advantage enough to cover the 21.5-point number in the NCAA football odds.

JAY’S PLAY: INDIANA +21.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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