NCAA Football Lines – Colorado Buffaloes at Toledo Rockets

BetOnline NCAA Football Lines: COLORADO -3.5, Total 54

You can’t possibly have been impressed with the way Colorado started its season, amid some lofty expectations. The Buffaloes were ten-point favorites in the NCAA football lines but were just flat out bad. What’s worse is that it was at home, against arch-rival Colorado State, and they fell behind 17-0 early in the second quarter, and never recovered.

There was no excuse for it, and a lot of that has to be a reflection on the coaching, where people were already calling for Dan Hawkins’ head.

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• COL has covered two of its last ten games
• COL has lost five of its last six games SU
• COL has played six of its last eight games UNDER the total
• COL has covered one of its last five road games
• COL has lost its last five road games SU
• COL has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
• TOL has lost six of its last seven games SU
• TOL has covered six of its last nine home games
• TOL has lost five of its last six home games SU
• TOL has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

Are there positives to be taken from the game? Not many. The Buffs converted just three of 14 third downs, ran for only 29 net yards and gained less than five yards a pass. That will never make you a winner in the NCAAF betting lines. Where was Darrell Scott, who came to Boulder with a lot of hype as a freshman? Well, he had one carry for one yard, and one catch for 14 yards. He can’t pass block – that’s the rap. Like I said, Hawkins is under fire.

Toledo may have weaknesses for Colorado to exploit. There was absolutely no way the Rockets could stop the run in their opener against Purdue, allowing 315 rushing yards and 52 points. In fact, they allowed sophomore Ralph Bolden to have the best day of any running back in the country – 234 yards on 21 carries. Still, you have to have at least some doubts that Hawkins is able to implement many parts of what would appear to be ideal strategy to his advantage in covering the NCAA football lines.

You can’t fault Aaron Opelt too much; the senior quarterback threw it 67 times for 423 yards last week, and seems to have found some new targets he can turn to, in addition to the terrific Stephen Williams (185 yards last week), a two-time All-MAC selection who runs a 4.39 forty-yard dash. With running back Morgan Williams serving another game on his suspension, they will take to the air again. If the Rockets go down, they will go down swinging.

This will be a hostile crowd for the Buffaloes, and that may be a factor in evaluating this game with regard to the NCAA football lines. The Glass Bowl is expected to be electric for this nationally-televised contest. The stadium is regularly tops in the NCAA in terms of percentage of capacity, because there is so much standing room that it can exceed its listed capacity by as much as 30%. It is not unusual for the Glass Bowl to be 115% of capacity on game days.

We know the holes in Toledo’s defense, but we’d like to see Colorado do something other than under-achieve before going to far in laying points on the road. We’ll lean toward Toledo, the 3.5-point underdog in the BetOnline NCAA football lines.

JAY’S PLAY: TOLEDO +3.5 *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)