NCAA Football Line – Florida State Reclaims Tallahassee

Florida State leads this series against Wake Forest 22-5-1 and will defeat the Demons straight up, but the primary importance here lies on which team covers the NCAA Football Line.

These teams open up their ACC Conference games against each other here and are coming off two very different outcomes from last week.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-1) at Florida State Seminoles (2-1) – 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN3

Doak Campbell Stadium (82,000) – Tallahassee, Florida

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NCAA Football Line:

Wake Forest (1-2 ATS) +20 ½
Florida State (1-1 ATS) -20 ½

Over Under Game Total 62.5

Wake Forest destroyed their first opponent Presbyterian (uh oh) and didn’t cover the point-spread, but they squeaked by Duke and covered. They then got their culos (Spanish-look it up) handed to them by the Stanford wrecking machine last Saturday.

Florida State’s defense held BYU to 191 yards of total offense in a 34-10 win last week after being pummeled by top 10 Oklahoma the week before 47-17. The Sooners are a much different animal than Stanford.

The Demon Deacons are coming off a Stanford smack-down 68-24 on the road giving up 535 total yards and ten touchdowns. They weren’t close to covering this NCAA Football Line. Were they practicing all week looking ahead to this week’s matchup? I don’t think so.

Wake’s main offensive strategy starts with the option attack and has a strong rushing game averaging 283.7 yards a game. The Seminoles are 17th in the nation only allowing 82 yards rushing per game. There is probably a middle here, but it is somewhere between Florida State winning and Wake Forest losing.

Last year, the Seminoles captured a victory 41-28 on the Deacons’ home turf. The interesting nugget here is that Wake Forest has come away victorious the last two invasions at Tallahassee. They shut the Seminoles out 30-0 in 2006 and headed back home with a 12-3 win in 2008.

The Seminoles have the rushing defense to avenge the 2 debacles in their own backyard. I don’t think they’ll be friendly when they get up over 30 points either. They will make the Demons pay for their Presbyterian destruction opening game.

Florida State is 1-4 against the spread when favored by 10.5-21 points the last three years. I’m telling you this to let you know you can’t always go by the trends. This year it’s about more than that. It’s about home turf.

This new head coach is going to make Bobby Bowden proud and get these boys up for this game at home. Teams don’t forget losses at home to a rival….especially 2 in a row.

The NCAA Football Line on this game is actually off. It’s already gone up over a point and will continue to rise, but until it gets to Florida State -23.5, it won’t be the right NCAA Football Line on this game.