NCAA Football Free Picks – Akron Zips vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

The Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2 SU, 7-1 Conf., 7-4-1 ATS, 8-4 O/U) haven’t been mentioned as national title contenders this preseason, but they will look to get their 2009 regular season off to a solid start when they host the Akron Zips (5-7 SU, 3-5 Conf., 6-6 ATS, 9-3 O/U) at Beaver Stadium on Saturday at 12 PM ET. Here is your NCAA Football free pick analysis for your betting pleasure.

The Nittany Lions return nine total starters but lost three of the school’s all-time leading receivers due to graduation, but still have a quarterback capable of making game-changing plays in All-Big Ten senior quarterback Daryll Clark. He threw for 2,592 yards, 19 touchdowns and six interceptions and finished the 2008 season as the conference’s top-rated passer.

Clark also led the Nittany Lions to their second Big Ten title in the past four years, though the Nittany Lions fell to USC 38-24 in the Rose Bowl.

Akron returns eight offensive starters including senior quarterback Chris Jacquemain who threw for 2,748 yards, 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last season but will be looking to shake off a three-game losing streak that ruined what looked like a promising season when the club stood at 5-4 with just three games left.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NCAAF Free Pick.

• Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
• Zips are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Zips are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. MAC.
• Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
• Nittany Lions are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
• Over is 6-1 in Zips last 7 games overall.
• Over is 4-1 in Zips last 5 vs. Big Ten.
• Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games on grass.
• Over is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 games in September.
• Over is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last 7 games overall.

NCAAF Odds

Akron +27 -110

Penn State -27 -110

Over 59½ -110

Under 59½ -110

Analysis: This point spread may look like it’s a bit too large for the Nittany Lions to cover, but I say ride Penn State in this home contest as they have gone a solid 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against MAC schools and an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.

While Akron has gone a spotless 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, the Zips have also gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on grass and an identical 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Nittany Lions have also gone 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, and I believe the outcome of this contest will be similar to their last matchup against Akron which they won 34-16 back in 2006.

The Nittany Lions have also recorded a jaw-dropping 39-1 record against Mid-American Conference opponents under the venerable Joe Paterno, cementing my selection of the Nittany Lions.

With nearly all of the key O/U trends pointing toward a convincing Over outcome, I say play the Over as well.

NCAAF Free Picks: Penn State -27 Points/Over 59½ Total Points