NCAA Football Bowl Betting – Arkansas vs. East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl

College Football Bowl Betting – Liberty Bowl

January 2nd 2010 – 5:30pm

Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) vs. East Carolina Pirates (9-4)

Arkansas Razorbacks -7½ -320 Over 63½
East Carolina Pirates +7½ +260 Under 63½

On January 2, Memphis Tennessee plays host to the Liberty Bowl. The 2010 Liberty Bowl will be contested between the Conference USA champions the East Carolina Pirates and the SEC representative the Arkansas Razor Backs.

The BetOnline.com sportsbook has the Arkansas Razorbacks as the -7½ point favorites and posted an over/under of 63½ points for the Liberty Bowl. A straight up wager on the underdog East Carolina Pirates will pay college bowl bettors +260 on the moneyline.

The C-USA champions Pirates (9-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) could be in over their heads versus the Razorbacks (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) but stranger things have happened in January. East Carolina only averaged 27.8 points a game but held opponents to 22.1 points a game, ranking them 38th in the nation. Quarterback Patrick Pinkney (2738 yards, 14 TDs, 10 INT) and tailback Dominique Lindsay (1029 yards, 5 TDs) lead their offense; the duo should have a good game versus a Razorbacks defense that isn’t good at stopping the passing or rushing game of their opponents.

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The Razorback defense ranked 68th against the run and a dismal 104th against the pass but before sport bettors discount Arkansas too much, you have to consider they play in the toughest conference in college football. While the Razorbacks give too many yards, they were able to clamp down their opponents in the red zone; limiting opponent’s points scored to 25.8 a game.

Offensively, the Arkansas Razorbacks can score points, a lot of points. Quarterback Ryan Mallett passed for over 3400 yards, 27 touchdowns and only had seven passes picked off. When running the ball, Arkansas spreads it around with their top four backs rushing for over 300 yards, tailback Broderick Green found the end zone 12 times. The Razorbacks scored over 37 points a game in the tough SEC.

The East Carolina Pirates are over their heads in this game. The defense performed well against their C-USA conference rivals where the Pirates finished with an 8-1 record. However, against the rest of college football, East Carolina was a disappointing 1-3.

I considered strength of schedule and whose offense can beat whose defense when making my Liberty Bowl prediction. I’m confident East Carolina will score against the Razorbacks defense but I’m also very confident that Arkansas will score a ton of points against the Pirates defense.

The Razorbacks were only 3-5 in the SEC but dominated non-conference games going 4-0. I don’t like the half point but it’s not enough to make me lay off the line, so I’m predicting the Arkansas Razorbacks will win by eight or more points to cover the spread and both teams will do their part to ensure the game goes over the posted total of 63½ points.

College Football Liberty Bowl Betting Prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks -7½ and Over 63½