NCAA Football Big 10 Picks – #9 Ohio State at Indiana

Saturday, October 3: 12:00 p.m.

BetOnline.com Football Betting Odds: Ohio State -17 1/2, Total Points 48

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• Ohio State: 7-1 ATS in last 8 games
• Ohio State: Total has gone UNDER in 4 of last 5 games
• Ohio State: 5-0 ATS in last 5 road games
• Indiana : 1-6 ATS in last 7 games against Ohio State
• Indiana: 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against Ohio State
• Indiana: 1-4 ATS in last 5 home games against Ohio State

The Indiana Hoosiers were just one play away from upsetting a Big 10 power a week ago. They’ll get another shot at it this weekend when the Ohio State Buckeyes come to town.

Last week, it was the Hoosiers who were on the road, at Michigan Stadium facing the 3-0 Michigan Wolverines. Despite outgaining Michigan by close to 100 yards of total offense, Indiana couldn’t hold on for a victory. A late and controversial Donovan Warren interception call went against the Hoosiers, and the home team held on to beat the Hoosiers 36-33.

As for Ohio State, it was business as usual, as they opened Big 10 play with a dominating 30-0 home victory over Illinois. On the day, it was Ohio State’s defense that won the game for them, as they held the Illini to just 170 yards of total offense on the game. As for the offense, it was led by Danny “Boom,” Herron who rushed for two touchdowns. He’s expected to split carries with Brandon Saine this weekend. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor had a relatively quiet game for his standards, completing just eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown.

If Indiana wants to pull the upset against Ohio State, their offense will need to put up the yardage they did against Michigan, but convert their red zone opportunities. More than anything, that may have been in the key in the loss for the Hoosiers: In five trips within Michigan’s 20-yard line, they were only able to get four field goals and one touchdown. Even one more touchdown would have resulted in enough points for victory.

However, as always when going against Ohio State’s defense, things are easier said than done. A lot of credit needs to go to this unit that lost a lot of star power from a year ago- Malcolm Jenkins, James Laurainitis, Marcus Freeman etc.- but may actually be even better than in 2008. They’re giving up just 11 points per game on the season, and 258 yards of total offense, both of which are in the top 20 in college football.

Looking at this game, it’d be easy to pencil in Ohio State for a big victory, especially after back-to-back 30+ point wins. But Indiana proved that if nothing, they’re resilient, and after watching last week against Michigan they should have won the game.

Believe it or not, despite having “bigger,” names on the schedule so far, Indiana’s offense is actually the best that Ohio State has seen so far this season, and should be able to move the ball, even against Ohio State’s sturdy defense.

While the Buckeyes should do enough to win this game, Indiana is going to put up some points, and surprise some people with how close this game ends up being.

Aaron’s Pick: Indiana +17 ½