NCAA Football Betting – Navy Midshipmen at Rice Owls

Saturday, October 10: 3:30 p.m.

NCAA Football Betting: Navy -11 ½, Total Points 54 ½

Here are some betting trends that may be significant in this game:

Navy: 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games
Navy: Total has gone UNDER in 6 of last 9 games

Rice: Total has gone OVER in 16 of last 22 games
Rice: 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games

It’s been a rough year so far for the Rice Owls. They’ll look to notch their first win of the season when the Navy Midshipmen come to town Saturday.

For the home team, it’s already been a forgettable 2009 campaign, and it’s not even halfway over yet. On the season, neither the offense or the defense has gotten the job done as Rice is ranked 100th or worse in college football in total offense, scoring offense and rushing offense, as well as total defense, scoring defense and passing defense. The Owls two closest games in 2009 have been two 17-point losses, one last week against Tulsa, the other earlier in the year at Oklahoma State.

As for Navy, in a season that started with heartache, things have turned around nicely. On opening day September 5, the Midshipmen traveled to Columbus, Ohio to play the Ohio State Buckeyes. Despite giving up a touchdown just four minutes into the game, Navy bounced back and stayed close with Ohio State all the way until the end. The Midshipmen actually scored a touchdown to make the score 29-27 with just two minutes to play, but were unable to convert the 2-point conversion and eventually lost.

Since then though, Navy has rebounded nicely, winning three of their last four games, including a thrilling overtime victory over Air Force a week ago. In the game, an Air Force field goal forced overtime, but for the Midshipmen ultimately won the game with a field goal of their own in the extra period.

As always, Navy does virtually all of their damage offensively on the ground. They are currently ranked 8th in college football, averaging 230 rushing yards per game, compared to just 96 yards a game through the air. As is standard amongst triple-option teams, their leading rusher is actually quarterback Ricky Dobbs, who on the season has carried the ball 121 times and scored 10 touchdowns.

If Navy is to win this game, the key will holding onto the ball. The simple fact is, the Midshipmen are simply more talented than Rice at virtually every position on the field. It’s an old cliché in football, but the only team that is going to beat Navy, is themselves. Which I just can’t see happening.

Rice has played hard this year, but has come up short in almost every way possible. Even at home- where they’ve lost their last two- it’s hard to imagine them keeping this close. Take Navy giving the points.

Aaron’s Pick: Navy -11 ½