NCAA Betting Odds – Vanderbilt vs. LSU

Vanderbilt Commodores (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) at LSU Tigers (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Saturday, September 12 – 7 PM ET

NCAA Betting Odds: LSU -14.5, Total 46.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• VANDY has lost six of its last nine games SU
• VANDY has covered five of its last seven road games
• VANDY has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
• LSU has covered one of its last eight games
• LSU has won 18 of its last 25 games SU
• LSU has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• LSU has covered one of its last 12 home games
• LSU has won 21 of its last 25 home games SU
• LSU has played four of its last six home games OVER the total

Last season Vanderbilt got off to a great start, winning its first five games, including victories over South Carolina, Ole Miss and Auburn and coming up big in NCAA betting odds. This was a team that was minimizing mistakes, creating turnovers (+9 over that time), and playing solid defense. Then things started to go south for the guys from Nashville. They lost six of their last seven regular season games, scoring 14 points or less in six of them. As for the ‘Dores, well, they sort of backdoored their way into the Music City Bowl (which was actually a home game), where they beat Boston College 16-14 and conquered the NCAA betting odds ion that game.

In the 2009 season opener they weren’t really tested that severely, beating Western Carolina by a 45-0 score. Vanderbilt brought back 17 starters, including its entire front seven on defense. Sure, WCU is an FCS entry, but it had to be encouraging for Vanderbilt to have surpassed 300 yards in the first half. An infusion of newcomers seems to be paying off, and might manifest itself in their performance in the NCAA betting odds. Two freshmen are providing valuable contributions in the backfield. Zac Stacy and Warren Norman both ran for over 100 yards, which hasn’t happened for a pair of Vandy runners since 2002. Larry Smith, a sophomore, turned in a solid effort before exiting with cramps, but he is a guy who can stretch the field a little for the Commodores, and that is refreshing.

Last week, LSU faced a Washington team that didn’t win a game last season, and had to put in some work before getting out of Seattle with a 31-23 win that did not cover in the NCAA betting odds. Jordan Jefferson threw for 172 yards and three touchdowns, so he is not the problem. Instead, the defense, which had some questions surrounding it, struggled against Jake Locker & Co.. giving up 472 yards to the Huskies and allowed Washington to convert third downs on a regular basis (11 of 19 times) and hold the ball for 37 minutes.

These are not good signs, when we compound it with the fact that LSU just isn’t very good at covering numbers in the NCAA betting odds, dropping 19 of the last 24, as well as 11 of 12 in Baton Rouge. Sure, we expect Charles Scott to carry the ball more than 12 times this week, but we also expect LSU’s non-covering trend to continue. We’re taking the points with Vandy, the 14.5-point underdog in the BetOnline NCAA betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: VANDERBILT +14.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)