NCAA Basketball Picks – Xavier Musketeers at Butler Bulldogs

Xavier Musketeers (6-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) at Butler Bulldogs (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS)

Saturday, December 19 – 2 PM ET

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• XAV has won eight of its last 12 games SU
• XAV has played eight of its last 12 games UNDER the total
• XAV has covered 11 of its last 16 games
• XAV has lost five of its last six road games SU
• XAV has covered one of its last six road games
• BUT has won four of its last six games SU
• BUT has covered four of its last 14 games
• BUT has played 14 of its last 20 games OVER the total
• BUT has covered two of its last nine home games
• BUT has won 22 of its last 26 home games SU

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Xavier has historically (well, at least in recent seasons) been known for its defense and tenacity. This year, I guess you could say that is no exception. The Musketeers have allowed opposing teams just 38.6% shooting, which is even better when you consider that they pull down 40 rebounds a game.

Well, it’s better until you look at the one true road game they’ve played, which was the disaster at Kansas State where they were trounced 46-33 on the glass while going down to a 71-56 defeat to Frank Martin’s team, which was not a good showing in college basketball betting action.

Butler does not exactly stifle teams, allowing 45% shooting. They are hitting only 41% from the field themselves, but they have stepped up things from three-point range since then, making eight each in games against Ohio State and Georgetown. Until the game against the Buckeyes, the Bulldogs were being criticized for not being able to get over the hump against nationally-ranked opposition.

However, they were able to do so by creating some distance in the second half against an Ohio State team that was playing without its star, Evan Turner. Even still, they have covered just four of their last 14 games in the college basketball odds.

Both these teams have been wildly inconsistent in terms of their shooting. Xavier hit less than 30% against K-State, while Butler went cold against the Georgetown Hoyas, making just 31% of its attempts. As far as the straight-up winner, prefer the Butler trio of Gordon Hayward (who had 24 points and eight rebounds against Ohio State), Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack, at a venue where this team has won 22 times in the last 26 tries.

They got past an obstacle in last Saturday’s win, and Xavier had to go overtime and was lucky to survive its biggest test yet against crosstown rival Cincinnati.

If they can keep Howard out of foul trouble (Ohio State made major advances while he was on the bench) they can win the game. That might be a tall order, however, as the guy averages over four fouls per contest. Perhaps we’re looking at a game where well-rested Xavier stays in it all the way, and so we’ll take the points in out NCAA basketball predictions.

JAY’S PREDICTION: BUTLER BY 1

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