NCAA Basketball Betting Odds – Michigan vs. #19 Wisconsin

Wednesday, January 20 — 8:30 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: WISCONSIN -9

Michigan had a very poor shooting game on Sunday in Ann Arbor against Connecticut, making just 37% of their shots from the field. Their saving grace was nine three-point shots and an edge at the free throw line to grab a 68-63 decision over the perennial Big East power, covering in the betting odds. Manny Harris, the 6’5" guard, scored 18 points and pulled down eight rebounds in the game, and although he hit just 5 of 15, he has been more consistent over a five-game period, shooting 48% (33 for 69).

When you look at that victory, it was really the first Michigan registered this year over a good team that was at or near full strength. It was also critical to building this team’s RPI, which may not be good enough when the dust clears to get this team to a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Here are some of the college basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• MICH has won and covered four of its last five games
• MICH has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• MICH has lost four of its last five road games SU
• MICH has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
• WISC has covered five of its last seven games
• WISC has won eight of its last ten games SU
• WISC has played eight of its last nine games UNDER the total
• WISC has covered five of its last six home games
• WISC has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers -9 >> Join Now to Bet!

Also….

• WISC has covered four of the last six meetings
• WISC has won the last six meetings SU
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
• WISC has covered six of the last nine meetings as the home team
• WISC has won the last nine meetings SU as the home team
• WISC has had the shooting edge in each of the last six meetings
• WISC has had the rebounding edge in four of the last five meetings
• MICH has made more three-pointers in each of the last four meetings

It’s not likely that Michigan will have the same kind of edges against the Badgers that they had against the Huskies. Wisconsin has been throwing a few bricks up lately, failing to exceed 41% shooting in any of its last four games, but three of those games were on the road and the fourth was an upset over Purdue. Bo Ryan’s team takes good care of the ball (just 10.3 turnovers a game) and hits its free throws (74%).

Wisconsin has also managed to figure out a way to slow Michigan down in the John Beilein "era" as well. Last year they scored a season sweep, and in the Big Ten tournament two seasons ago, they held Michigan to just 34 points. However, one has to realistically evaluate whether Wisky, which has averaged less than 58 points over its last four, can put enough on the board to create the sufficient distance against a crew that is athletic, talented and forces turnovers.

A lot of that goes back to Wisconsin being without Jon Leuer, the team’s top rebounder and shot-blocker and second-leading scorer, who was the guy who made it necessary to check this team in the paint. They just aren’t scoring points there – 16 each against Northwestern and Ohio State, for example. And with smaller players (as short as 6’5" in fact) having to deal with DeShawn Sims (16.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg), Michigan gets a matchup advantage.

We’ll come inside the impost with Michigan, the nine-point underdog.

JAY’S PLAY: MICHIGAN +9 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)