NCAA Basketball Analysis Texas vs Wisconsin

BetOnline NCAA Basketball Wagering Odds: TEXAS -1.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* TEX has won six of its last seven games SU

* TEX has won five of its last seven road games SU

* TEX has played four of its last six road games OVER the total

* WISC has won 21 of its last 24 games SU

* WISC has won its last six home games SU

* WISC has played five of its last eight games UNDER the total

Five players with very little experience, including a couple of freshmen, have been thrust into the rotation by Bo Ryan this season, and it is clear to us that this is a team that is gearing itself up a bit more for the Big Ten and gradual development by the time the post-season rolls around. The Badgers have equipped themselves well, and indeed they have scored wins over Virginia Tech and San Diego. They also came up a little short against Marquette and way short against Connecticut.

There is no question in our minds that Ryan will have his team ready when the time comes, but these guys are going to have to rebound better and find someone who can really take over the ball-handling duties. Ryan has some nice scoring balance with veterans like Marcus Landry (12.5 ppg), Trevon Hughes (12.1 ppg), Jason Bohannon (10.6 ppg) and Joe Krabbenhoft (7.6 ppg). What he is lacking is a guy like Michael Flowers, one of the best defensive stoppers in the Big Ten last year, who could literally lock down on the opponent’s top backcourt scorer and alter an entire offense.

Someone like Flowers could be useful against a Texas team that is getting huge offensive contributions out of A.J. Abrams. He has opened things up as a scorer this season, tallying 19.7 points per game, largely on the strength of 3.4 buckets from beyond the arc. Abrams is also extremely effective from the free throw line (84.4%) and since Rick Barnes is getting very solid point guard play out of Justin Mason (5.4 assist, 2.1 turnovers per game), the Badger backcourt is in for a difficult night.

Connor Atchley (6.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg) hasn’t progressed as much as he should, and that has hurt Texas on the boards. Damion James is moving more to a swingman role now that Gary Johnson has done more with his additional playing time. These Longhorns just aren’t looking like monsters on the glass, neither are they swimming in depth, and Saturday’s loss to Michigan State was not a good sign. Provided Ryan can conceive a defensive game plan to bottle up Abrams a little, the home team can take advantage of its balance and deal Texas a second straight loss to a Big Ten team.

We’ll take the points with Wisconsin, the 1.5-point underdog in the BetOnline NCAA basketball odds.

JAY’S PLAY: WISCONSIN +1.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetOnline Locker Room)