NBA Western Conference Finals Betting – Can Suns Match Lakers At All?

I envisioned the defensive matchup of Grant Hill on Kobe Bryant to be a “Scottie Pippen guarding Michael Jordan” scenario. Maybe I was wrong. I kind of feel like I was very right. Instead of shutting down Kobe, Hill was unable to stop an awe inspiring team captain who led the Lakers to a one-game lead over the Suns with a 40-point effort. On top of that, the Lakers smashed the NBA Western Conference betting line for Game 1. Can the Suns even hope to match what the Lakers can do on their home court?

Even with the return of Robin Lopez, a guy who was a desperate fill-in for the Suns’ front court, Phoenix was ripped open in the third quarter and continued to bleed out for the rest of the game. Amar’e Stoudemire finished with a team high 23-points, while Nash poured in a double-double with 13-points and 13 apples.

The surprising part about Lopez’s return is that it meant jack squat on the boards. Lopez was held to just 6-rebounds and all of the Suns’ starters managed 20-rebounds in Game 1. Lamar Odom hauled down 19 on his own.

Even though the Suns have been marvelous in the playoffs thus far, this is proving to be their worst matchup personnel wise very quickly. Standing at a mighty 8-2 ATS in their previous NBA playoff betting games, something that was overlooked was the parity in the Western Conference. The Lakers are the cream of the crop, and their benchmark is insanely high.

The Suns are all too familiar with that. They’re now just 1-4 ATS and winless in their past five games at the STAPLES Center. As far as betting goes, the only safe play seems to be the OVER which can’t be set high enough by the oddsmakers. It’s been hit in 4-of-5 games when the Lakers host the Suns.

Phoenix Suns (54-28) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (57-25)
Wednesday, May 19th — STAPLES Center — 9:00pm EST
NBA Betting Line: Lakers -7 (216)

Still, scoring doesn’t mean much for Nash and Phoenix if they can’t get the defensive stops against the Lakers. Then again, there’s a reason that I’m not backing away from my prediction of this series going the distance and I’ll tell you why.

My notes during Game 1 had one big, glaring, underlined, capitalized phrase that keeps jumping out at me and it was this: “LAKERS KITCHEN SINK”. If anything stands out at you from this game it should be these numbers: 58 and 47.1. Those were the percentages that the Lakers hit from the field and beyond the arc. Those are ridiculous numbers, and it’s impossible for L.A. to put up back-to-back games like that.

To draw it out for you, a “kitchen sink” game is where a team throws everything they have at their opponent. They hit improbable shots, everything goes their way and they seem unstoppable. I mean, Phoenix led the league in field-goal and three-point percentages and the Lakers’ numbers in Game 1 were 10% higher than Phoenix’s season average. Not only is that unreal, it’s also unrepeatable.

To go from a hobbling Portland squad, to an aging Spurs team and then to the incredible force of nature that is the Lakers is a huge step to take. Phoenix has learned their lesson in Game 1, and they’ll be ready for a dogfight in Game 2. That’s why I’m not backing down from Phoenix in Western Conference playoff betting. I just can’t see the Lakers putting together another, incredible performance like that.

Furious NBA Playoff Free Pick – Phoenix +7 (OVER)