NBA Spread Betting – No love lost between Orlando, Cleveland in Eastern Conference brawl

The Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers will meet on Sunday in what could be a potential preview of the Eastern Conference finals at the Quicken Loans Arena, and both of them appear to be coming into the post-season with a head of steam. Cleveland has not been a strong betting proposition at home, however, covering just 16 of its 39 appearances. Orlando is 4-4-1 ATS as the betting underdog, but the Magic is 23-16 SU on the road, which is a good sign for them as they seek to defend their conference title.

Orlando Magic (55-23 SU, 41-33-4 ATS) at Cleveland Cavaliers (61-18 SU, 36-40-2 ATS)
Sunday, April 11 – 1 PM ET
(Records good through Thursday’s games; check Friday’s results)

Here are some of the NBA betting trends as they relate to this matchup (good through Thursday’s games; check Friday’s results):

• ORL has won 16 of its last 19 games SU
• ORL has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
• ORL has won six of its last eight road games SU
• ORL has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
• CLEV has won 18 of its last 22 games SU
• CLEV has covered two of its last six home games
• CLEV has won its last 11 home games SU
• CLEV has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total

Going into Friday’s game against the Knicks, Orlando was the NBA’s most prolific three-point shooting team, making 10.2 shots a game from beyond the arc. The Magic also was the second stingiest club in the league as far as field goal shooting percentage, allowing opponents to hit just 43.8% of their shots. Free throw shooting, of course, has been a problem for them, as they are just 72.5% accurate.

Cleveland is even worse than Orlando from the line (72%), but is third in the league in shooting, making 48.7% of its shots. The Cavs average 103.3 points a game at home, and they are right behind Orlando in field goal defense at 44%. Unlike the Magic, however, Cleveland has been overpriced enough to be a losing betting proposition, despite having wrapped up the league’s best record at 61-18. They are only 36-41-2 against the number.

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Here are the head-to-head NBA sports betting trends for this game:

• ORL has won nine of the last 14 meetings SU
• ORL has covered eleven of the last 14 meetings
• Five of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total
• ORL has covered seven of the last nine meetings as the road team
• ORL has lost four of the last five meetings as the road team
• The last four meetings in Cleveland have gone OVER the total
• CLEV has had the rebounding edge in seven of the last eight meetings
• ORL has made more three-pointers in eight of the last ten meetings

The last time Shaquille O’Neal played, it was February 25 against the Boston Celtics. A few games before, he was 9 of 10 from the field against his former team, scoring 20 points in what was a losing effort. Now he is slated to come back to action after rehabilitating his thumb injury.

Cleveland has achieved some measure of revenge, one supposes, for last year’s six-game defeat in the East finals, taking two out of three in this year’s encounters, including a win both at home and on the road. Last time they crossed paths, the Magic overcame the 20-point effort from Shaq with 51% shooting and 22 points with 16 rebounds from Dwight Howard en route to a 101-95 win, which also constituted a betting cover.

What we suspect, however, is that since neither of these teams can improve their playoff position, and would be on track for another showdown with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, we may not see either of them breaking out any new wrinkles. Frankly, I am a little surprised that Shaq could be playing here, although the Cavs may want to insert him into the "model" for how they might do against the Magic when more is on the line.

As we mentioned before, when you bet the Cavs at home you are taking more of a risk than usual, while Orlando uses defense and three-point shooting (50 in the last four games!) to be within range on the road. We’re moving with the Magic, the betting underdog in Sunday NBA action.

JAY’S PREDICTION: ORLANDO BY 3