NBA Prop of the Day – Lakers and Thunder

I hope everyone made some money on yesterday’s prop of the day, my pick for the double result in the 76ers/Blazers game paid off big, +550! Today’s pick is on a different kind of prop, the “first to score” prop. Basically, the name tells you everything you need to know. Prices in the BetOnline NBA Sportsbook are:

Lakers -130

OKC Even money

To analyze this prop we have to look at each teams record scoring first, and, more importantly, each team’s record at winning the tip. Both LA and OKC have had multiple players take the tip for them this season, so we’ll focus on Pau Gasol and Jeff Green, who should take the tip-off tonight. Here are some of the stats and trends you need to know.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are 36-34 (51%) winning the tip-off this season.

The Thunder are 32-38 (46%) scoring first over the entire season.

Jeff Green is 29-18 (62%) winning the tip-off this season.

The Thunder are 21-15 (58%) scoring first when they win the tip-off this season.

In their last 7 games, since Jeff Green started taking the tip-off again, he’s gone 5-2 (71%) in the tip-off.

Jeff Green is 2-0 against Pau Gasol in the tip-off this year.

The Thunder are 6-5 scoring first in their last 11 games.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are 42-27 (61%) winning the tip-off this season.

The Lakers are 37-32 (54%) scoring first over the whole season.

Pau Gasol is 15-8 (65%) winning the tip-off.

The Lakers are 24-18 (57%) scoring first when they win the tip-off.

The Lakers are 3-4 scoring first in their last seven games.

Pau Gasol is 0-2 against Jeff Green in the tip-off this year.

Analysis: Jeff Green and Pau Gasol are both well above average at winning the tip. Gasol’s numbers have a smaller sample size because Andrew Bynum took all the tip-offs for the Lakers before he got injured. The Lakers are only OK at scoring first when they do win the tip (57%). The Thunder are slightly better (58%). When you factor in the improvements in the OKC offense, the advantage of the home crowd and most importantly, Jeff Green’s 2-0 record in the tip-off against Pau Gasol (quick jumper vs. longer reach), you can see that OKC holds an advantage in scoring first for this game.

Pick: OKC Thunder Ev To Score First