NBA Playoffs Game 1 Parlay – Dallas at San Antonio

The Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 40-42 ATS, 38-44 O/U) and San Antonio Spurs (54-28 SU, 40-40-2 ATS, 39-41-2 O/U) will kick off their 2008-09 postseason when they square off at the Alamodome tonight at 8 PM ET.

The Western Conference rivals tied the regular season series at two games apiece while Dallas has gone 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests against San Antonio and the Underdog, 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Dallas won five of its final six regular season games including a 95-84 win over Houston as 1-point road underdogs in their regular season finale while the Spurs enter the postseason having won four straight and five of it last six as well including a 105-98 win over New Orleans as 9-point home favorites in its regular season finale.

Here is a look at tonight’s key betting trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Picks.

The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

The Mavericks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as an underdog.

The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.

The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.

The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio.

The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in San Antonio.

The Mavericks are 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings.

The Road team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

NBA Odds

Dallas Mavericks +4 -110

San Antonio Spurs -4 -110

Over 185½ -110

Under 185½ -110

Analysis: While I believe this game between two very evenly matched teams has all the makings of a close affair, I think the San Antonio Spurs have just enough offense, even without Manu Ginobili to cover the spread narrowly at home in this playoff opener.

With the slower pace of the postseason here as well, I like the Under to play out for the third time in the last five meetings.

NBA Free Picks: Spurs -4 Points/Under 185½ Total Points