NBA Playoff Props – LeBron In Game 5

Many NBA playoff bettors don’t expect LeBron James to be down for very long. The Cleveland Cavaliers’ star was held to 39% shooting and committed seven turnovers in his team’s Game 4 loss to the Boston Celtics. That probably isn’t going to be a winning formula for the Cavs to surge ahead with a win in Game 5.

Upon coming home to Quicken Loans Arena on Tuesday night, which LeBron will show up – the one that was flustered by the Celtics on Sunday, or the one that scored 21 points in the first quarter of Game 4, on the way to 38 for the game? Will it be something in between? Well, we have a challenging betting proposition before us,  one that takes a look at LeBron’s point total, and the over/under is 31.5, with the "over" emphasized to the tune of a -130 price, while the "under’ is even money.

There may be something of an additional burden on James, as he may be given the assignment of slowing down Boston’s star point guard, Rajon Rondo. That adds a twist to the proceedings. Tune in and find out at 8 PM ET on TNT.

YOU WANT YOUR PROPS?
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Eastern Conference Semi-Finals – Game 5
(Series tied 2-2)
Tuesday, May 11 – 8 PM ET

Betting Proposition
LeBRON JAMES – TOTAL POINTS
Over 31.5 Points  -130
Under 31.5 Points  Even

As LeBron James goes, so goes the Cavalier offense, perhaps more so than with any team in the NBA. When he has had subpar games, his team has lost. In Game 2 of this series he didn’t do too badly from the field (7 for 15), but you can bet he was looking to take more 15 shots on the evening. And the five turnovers he committed also didn’t help very much. In Game 4 the other night, he made only seven of his 18 shots and almost got to a rather dubious quadruple double, which includes not only points, rebounds and assist but turnovers as well, as he committed seven of them. It is no coincidence that Cleveland scored 86 in one of those games and 87 in the other, and lost as the betting favorite in both.

There is obviously something to be done in the way of regrouping, and he certainly did that in Game 3, when he scored 21 points in the first quarter and got his team out to a 19-point lead after the first twelve minutes, a lead they would never relinquish. The final was 124-95, and it was the Celtics’ worst home playoff loss ever.

We know that James is altogether capable of putting up those monster numbers, and some people are expecting that as he returns to Cleveland with his team. He isn’t above going into a slump; during one three-game stretch in late January, for example, he made just 18 of 49 shots. Usually though, he has bounced back well after an off-game. Cleveland coach Mike Brown has been looking at letting LeBron guard Rajon Rondo, and that might reduce LeBron’s rebounding totals, but I don’t think it will cut into his scoring.

There are those who suspect that he will try to overcompensate and monopolize the ball, a concern since he has sometimes made awful decisions when Boston throws certain defensive looks at him. That may be the case, but that is more of a matter for those who are betting the pointspread, or "side" in this game. As far as this prop is concerned, it might be insightful to consider. Keep in mind that he has also scored 30 points or more in ten of his last 14 games against the Celtics. We’ll stick with a bet on the "over" here, as we know the guy can easily surpass that number.

JAY’S BETTING PLAY:  OVER 31.5 (-130) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)