NBA Playoff Propmania – Celtics vs. Bulls Game Two

Propmania! NBA Playoffs Celtics-Bulls Game Two

Game one was a classic. Overtime, a huge performance in Rose’s playoff debut, a monster night from Rondo, last second free throws missed and made, it had it all. It will be hard to top that tonight, but you can be sure I’ll be watching, and I imagine you might be too. And if you are watching and wagering, the BetOnline sportsbook has every bet could look for. On top of the game, 1st quarter and 1st half moneylines, spreads and totals, there are 14 props to wager on! There’s first to score, first team to 10 and 20, last team to score, total threes, largest lead and more. I’m going to focus in on the player props, because I’m a stats guy, I love these types of bets, and there’s some good value on a few lines.

Prop: Tyrus Thomas Total Points

Line:   Over 12 points -105
            Under 12 points -125

Thomas averages 10.8pts in 27.5mpg this season. Against the Celtics, Thomas has posted 16 (last night), 11 (facing Garnett’s defense, though) and 18 (this time no Garnett). That’s an average of 15ppg. That’s not the only reason I like the over. First, without Garnett, no Boston power forward really has the quickness to keep Thomas off the free throw line. Also, he scored 6 in OT on Saturday and his confidence should be sky high. Derrick Rose is going to command a lot more double teams after his monster game, and Tyrus should be the recipient of a few more Rose dimes. But the biggest factor that makes me like the over here is the mechanics on Tyrus’ jumper. He’s looked so much smoother and more confident with his release recently.

Pick: Tyrus Thomas total points OVER 12 -105

Prop: Glen Davis Total Points + Rebounds

Line: Over 20 Points+Rebounds +120
           Under 20 Points+Rebounds -150

Big Baby is getting some prop love from the bookmakers. On the season he’s averaging 7.0ppg and 4.0rebs, so this seems like the easiest under bet ever. However, he played only 21.5mpg in the regular season, and with Garnett down he played 40min last night and has been averaging around 35 (remember, OT on Saturday). If we take his regular season averages and adjust them for the extra minutes, we get 11.4ppg and 6.5rebs, for a total of 17.9. Against the Bulls in the regular season, he’s posted points+rebounds totals of 4 (16 min) and 5 (13min). I think the combination of Thomas, Noah and Miller will be able to keep him pretty quiet on the score sheet tomorrow, so I like the under despite the -150 price.

Pick: Glen Davis Total Points + Rebounds UNDER 20 -150
Prop: Rondo vs. Rose Most Points and Assists

Line:   Derrick Rose -5.5 -130
             Rajon Rondo +5.5 -110

Rose averages 16.8pts and 6.3asts on the season, for a total of 23.1. Rondo averages 11.9pts and 8.2asts for a total of 20.1. Rondo’s only -3 in terms of season averages, but is getting +5.5 on the spread. In last night’s game Rondo had a total of 36 points and assists while Rose had a ridiculous 47. In their three matches in the regular season, Rose had 19 points+assists in each and every game, while Rondo averaged 25. I think that the bookmakers are reading way too much into Rose’s amazing game one. Also, Rose is going to attract a lot of extra attention, which may raise his assists, but it will lower his points even more.

Top Pick: Rondo vs. Rose Most Points+Assists – Rajon Rondo +5.5 -110