NBA Playoff Pick – Boston Celtics ATS in the 3rd Quarter

This series between the Bulls and Celtics has been so good that I’m sure you’ll all be watching game five tonight, and I also know you want to put your action where the smart money is. I’ve gone through all the bets available on the game (no small number, check them all out) and one line stands out above the rest, even though it’s an unusual bet that you might skip over. Check out the line, numbers, and analysis, and see if you don’t agree.

BetOnline 3rd Quarter Spread:

Chicago Bulls +2 -115

Boston Celtics -2 -115

BetOnline 3rd Quarter Moneyline:

Chicago +135

Boston -165

3rd Quarter Betting Trends and Numbers:

• The Bulls have a -0.7 point differential in the 3rd quarter overall.

• The Celtics have a +2.6 point differential in the 3rd quarter overall.

• The Bulls have a -1.4 point differential on the road in the 3rd quarter.

• The Celtics have a +4.2 point differential at home in the 3rd quarter.

• The Celtics have a +4.6 point differential against the Bulls in 7 meetings so far this season.

• At home in Boston, that number is +6.5 (4 games).

• In the playoffs it’s +5.0 (4 games).

• In the playoffs at home, it’s +7.0 (2 games).

Analysis: Boston has gone 5-1-1 SU in the third quarter against Chicago this year, winning that quarter by an average of 4.6 points. At home it’s +5.0, and so far at home in the playoffs, it’s +7.0. It’s not just against Chicago, over the entire course of the season the Celtics are a nice +2.6 in the third. That accounts for over 35% of their total scoring margin. At home they have been even better, posting a scoring differential of +4.2 in the third quarter. That’s over 43% of their total margin. Boston is obviously a great third quarter team, and yet their 3rd quarter line is basically just the overall line (-7.5) divided by four. The bookmakers have not taken this 3rd quarter strength into consideration. That’s an opportunity for smart bettors. Even better, the Bulls have been below average in the 3rd. They have negative differentials overall and on the road of -0.7 and -1.4 respectively. Sometimes every number points in the same direction, and when they do, it doesn’t make much sense to go the other way!

Top Pick: Boston Celtics -2 (3rd Quarter Spread)