NBA Playoff Betting – Bucks Need Game 3

The Milwaukee Bucks are playing at a disadvantage without Andrew Bogut, but they’ll have the benefit of playing at home on Saturday night when they face the Atlanta Hawks in their first-round NBA postseason series.

Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, April 24th – 7:05 PM ET
Bradley Center –Milwaukee, WI
TV: ESPN
NBA Playoff Betting Odds: Bucks -1

The Week That Was: Hawks

The third seed in the Eastern Conference might have had a hard time with the sixth-seeded Bucks had Andrew Bogut been in the Milwaukee lineup, but the absence of the Australian center has enabled Atlanta to power its way to a 2-0 series lead. The Hawks are shooting a shade over 50 percent from the field for the series (79 of 156), and three of their starters – Josh Smith, Joe Johnson and Al Horford – are shooting 50 percent or better after two games. In each of the Hawks’ two 10-point wins – 102-92 in Saturday’s first game and 96-86 in Game 2 on Tuesday – all five Atlanta starters scored in double figures, reflecting not just superior balance but also the presence of inside scoring. Bogut would have been clogging the middle, altering shots, and grabbing rebounds to limit Atlanta’s looks near the basket, but without the big man, the Bucks have been impotent at the defensive end of the floor. Coach Mike Woodson and his staff have kept the Hawks on the right track and have not allowed them to get lazy or distracted at the offensive end of the floor.

The Week That Was: Bucks

Coach Scott Skiles needs to get balanced and substantial production from his limited roster, since the Bucks are now a more perimeter-dependent team. Milwaukee has to score big in order to win games, because the absence of Bogut will prevent the Bucks from winning a grind-it-out game near the rim. Some teams can win ugly, but Bogut was the player who gave Milwaukee a chance to win that way. Now, the most pleasant surprise in the East during the 2010 regular season must find a way to outflank Atlanta’s defense, which has been locking down quite successfully.
The Bucks have averaged just 89 points in the first two games of this series, and that simply won’t be enough to win. The deeper source of Milwaukee’s problems has been a lack of consistent scoring from multiple sources. Only two men – John Salmons and Ersan Ilyasova – have scored in double figures in each of the first two games of this best-of-seven set. Brandon Jennings must bounce back from an awful nine-point showing in Game 2, and other Milwaukee reserves must also answer the call.

Outlook & Pick

The Hawks are a commanding favorite to win this series. Andrew Bogut’s absence has robbed Milwaukee of its best chance to compete on even terms. The question for this Game 3 showdown, though, does not concern the series, but only one game. Can the Bucks, on one evening, use the comforts of home to their advantage? The answer is yes. Jennings should play much better at the Bradley Center, and perhaps more importantly, the other role players for Milwaukee, such as Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Kurt Thomas, stand a good chance of lifting their levels of proficiency. Atlanta in five looks like a good pick for this series, but that means Milwaukee wins once. This will be the time when the Bucks break through.

NBA Playoff Betting Pick: Bucks >> Join NOW