NBA Picks – Bobcats visit Kevin Martin and Houston Rockets on Friday

The Charlotte Bobcats will try to gain ground in the East playoff race as they take the court to face the Houston Rockets as NBA betting action tips off at the Toyota Center in Houston. The Bobcats have already clinched the first winning record in franchise history, but they are also a couple of games in back of the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks, and if you’ve been betting on them as a dog, you’re head of the game, as they are 23-16-1 ATS when getting points.

Of course, the Rockets, who also have a chance to finish above .500, are not a team that gives up, even though they have no chance to make a playoff appearance. However, if you told many people that they would be a winning team without the services of Yao Ming or Tracy McGrady, you may have been laughed out of many a room. Coach Rick Adelman deserves kudos (and coach of the year votes) for keeping this team together.

Charlotte Bobcats (42-36 SU, 43-34-1 ATS) at Houston Rockets (40-38 SU, 35-43 ATS)
Friday, April 9 – 8:30 PM ET
NBA Basketball Betting Lines: HOUSTON -1, Total 198.5

Here are some of the NBA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• CHAR has covered two of its last six games
• CHAR has won four of its last five games SU
• CHAR is 2-3-1 ATS in its last six road games
• CHAR has lost four of its last six road games SU
• CHAR has played six of its last seven road games UNDER the total
• HOU has covered three of its last ten games
• HOU has won four of its last six games SU
• HOU has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• HOU has played five of its last six home games OVER the total

When Larry Brown came to Charlotte, what he wanted to do was get the kind of personnel that was to his liking and to slow down the pace of play. He appears to have succeeded on both counts. Even though the Bobcats are just 28th in the NBA in scoring (95.3 ppg), they are having their best season yet, which is not so unusual for any team that is coached by Brown. This is a team that is also allowing fewer points than anyone, as teams have scored just 93.7 points a contest against them on 44.8% shooting. That’s one reason they have been a good bet all year (43-34-1 ATS). The ‘Cats are potentially a difficult match for anyone they face in the post-season, and at this point it looks like Orlando.

Houston relies on the three-pointer a lot more than Charlotte. The Rockets are making 7.8 shots per game from beyond the arc, and that places them behind only four teams. Adelman’s team is eight games behind in the playoff chase, but he has been setting things up for next season, with rookies like Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill getting extended minutes much of the time. Hill, who hardly ever played with the Knicks, has averaged 6.8 points and five rebounds in 17 minutes for the Rickets.

Here are the head-to-head NBA betting trends for this game:

• HOU has covered six of the last nine meetings
• HOU has won seven of the last eight meetings SU
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
• HOU has won four of the last five meetings SU as the home team
• Four of the last five meetings in Houston have gone UNDER the total
• HOU has had the shooting edge in six of the last eight meetings
• HOU has made more three-pointers in eight of the last ten meetings

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Charlotte seems to be playing at an accelerated pace over the last couple of games, and they have shot better, hitting 51% in a 109-100 home win over Atlanta and almost 49% in a 104-103 victory at New Orleans. These are good wins, but are they what Brown wants?

Houston has given up more than 100 points in four of its last five games. Shane Battier is the best defender they have, and he has a knee injury that has kept him out of the last ten games. Allowing 133 points at Indiana on Sunday was a low point. But back in Houston, they pulled a 113-96 upset over Utah on Wednesday night. They certainly have not quit, and to have Kevin Martin back in the fold is important, as the 6’7" guard has had 29 and 28 points in his last two games. He counteracts the presence of Stephen Jackson, who scored 43 points when these teams met previously, in a 102-94 Charlotte win at the Time Warner Cable Arena.

Neither of these teams has been a hot play for the betting public, but Houston still has some fire left, as the masterful Adelman continues to tweak and re-tweak his rotation. The Bobcats realize it’s a longshot that they will catch either the Heat or the Bucks, and it will be interesting to see what Brown does with players like Jackson and Tyrus Thomas, who are a little sore right now. In this particular matchup, Houston may be the smarter bet, with some momentum off wins over Memphis and Utah.

JAY’S PLAY: HOUSTON -1 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)