NBA Lock Alert – Billups and the Nuggets Host Timberwolves

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (-13)
(O/U) 216
Monday, January 11 – 9:00 PM ET

Without league MVP candidate Carmelo Anthony, the Denver Nuggets (23-14 SU, 17-19-1 ATS, 16-21 O/U) clearly aren’t playing their best basketball right now, having lost three of its last five games. But no matter how much the Nuggets struggle, they won’t be as bad off as the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves (8-30 SU, 18-20 ATS, 16-21-1 O/U).

Losers of six of its last seven games, the Timberwolves are rumored to be in the process of moving at least one of its starters and possibly more as the annual trade deadline approaches.

Minnesota suffered its latest loss on Saturday night, falling to the Chicago Bulls 110-96 as just four players reached double figures in scoring led by Ryan Gomes’ 15 points.

Key Trends

• Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
• Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
• Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Denver.
• Road team is 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

The Timberwolves failed to cover the NFL point spread as 8.5-point road underdogs and have gone just 1-4 ATS over its last five games.

The Nuggets had their modest two-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s narrow 102-100 loss to Sacramento.

Denver got a game-high 27 points from Chauncey Billups but failed to cover the NBA moneyline as a 1.5-point home favorite as the Kings shot a blistering 50 percent (8-for-16) from three –point distance.

Analysis: The Minnesota Timberwolves has recorded an absolutely surprising 5-0 ATS record against the Nuggets in the last five meetings in Denver while the road team in this series has gone a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last nine matchups between these two teams.

With that said, I just don’t see the T-Wolves beating a Nuggets team that will be fired up by the return of Anthony who is expected back tonight after sitting out the last five games with a bruised knee.

"He’s our No. 1 option, so it goes without saying what he does for our offense — he does everything,” Billups recently told reporters. “I think teams play us a little differently when he’s not playing, because they know they don’t have the one guy who can score 30, 40 points at any given time. So there’s a difference when you’re playing without him."

The Nuggets have gone a winless 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite, but I like them to snap that trend with an absolutely convincing home win over a Timberwolves team that has gone a dismal 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

Take the Nuggets to win and cover the NBA moneyline in this NBA pro basketball betting ‘lock’.

NBA Expert Picks: Nuggets -13 Points