NBA First Round Pick – Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs

The first round of the NBA betting playoffs should be extremely interesting this year, especially in the Western Conference. The BetOnline sportsbook offers a lot of different action on the games, but I’m going to focus on the “series price” futures bets. The bet is actually really simple, you just pick the winner of the series.

The Mavs and the Spurs have some serious postseason history, and even though neither franchise is exactly cresting, this series is going to bring the drama. Dallas beat the Spurs in 2006 when the Spurs had a healthy Duncan, and San Antonio remembers: the team, the fans, everyone.

The big storyline here is obviously how San Antonio will fare without their playoff assassin, El Ginobli. If Ginobli’s in, I don’t think anyone’s picking Big D, but with him out it becomes a pretty tight series.

There’s a few things that we know. Parker will go off, and I mean go off. He averaged 31.3pts/game against Dallas in the regular season, and with Ginobli down he’s going to have every chance to get his. Kidd can’t guard him and won’t be asked to. Barea and Terry can’t guard him and will be asked to. The big question mark for San Antonio actually comes on the defensive end, where Duncan’s knees are going to have a lot to say about the outcome of this series. Are we going to see the Duncan who got 20 and 19 in the last game of the regular season and looked 26, or the Duncan who went 2-8 with 4 points and 5 rebounds at home against Portland just a few games earlier. My guess, somewhere in between, some good games, some bad.

Dallas has actually been rolling in the last couple weeks. A few weeks ago they looked like they would fight with the Suns for the final playoff spot. Now they own the 6 seed and have won 7 of their last 10. Dirk has been disgusting with 30, 34, 29, 24, 31 and 28 in his last 6 games. The “x-factor” for Dallas is Josh Howard. If he’s assertive with his offensive game and doesn’t settle for jumpers (or finds his stroke), I really like the Mavs’ chances.

In terms of matchups, it’s fairly even. Parker has a big advantage, as we just mentioned. But with Bruce Bowen fading as a stopper, Dirk is not going to have a lot to contend with. The Spurs have a better system and take better shots, but the Mavs have a big edge in athleticism, especially if they can find some minutes for Bass, who I think is way under-utilized.

The current series prices at the BetOnline NBA sportsbook for this matchup are:

Dallas Mavericks +115

San Antonio Spurs -145

At even money I don’t know how much I’d like the Mavericks, although I do think they have a small edge over this depleted and slightly haggard Spurs team. However, at +115, Dallas has a lot of value. Look for the Mavs to take this series in 6 or 7.

Series Pick: Dallas Mavericks +115.