NBA Finals Predictions – Series Shifts To Boston After Celtics Hammer Lakers

Those of you that bothered listening to me rant about Ray Allen as the best value in my NBA Finals prediction for MVP, Game 2 was hard nosed proof of why. Allen tied a record with eight three-pointers to amass 32-points and lead the Celtics to a series tying win. Now, the NBA Finals shift back to Boston where Boston will play with all sorts of urgency as they try to prevent this series from heading back to L.A.

The backcourt scoring of the Celtics is the scariest part about this series for the Lakers. The Rondo-Fisher matchup notwithstanding, Kobe’s defensive responsibilities against Ray Allen is a dangerous weak link. It’s not just that Allen can make his shots available, and hit them as well, it’s that he never stops moving and that can kill Kobe’s stamina and endurance as the game progresses.

If you think chasing Allen around, trying to cool him down, didn’t wear Kobe out, then just look at his numbers. His 40-percent on 8-of-20 from the field was his third worst field goal percentage he put up in the entire post-season. Kobe ended the game with 21-points.

Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) vs. Boston Celtics (50-32)
Tuesday, June 8th — TD Garden — 9:00pm EST
NBA Betting Line: Boston -2.5 (193)

As far as NBA betting goes, the Lakers haven’t been a favorable investment. They’re 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and just 3-5-1 ATS in their past 9 road games. When playing in Boston, they’re an ugly 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 attempts.

Boston, meanwhile, has been a staggeringly good NBA bet. They’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 4-1 SU/ATS at home. Though they haven’t found a way to slow down Pau Gasol, the trash talking Spaniard still doesn’t have the room or impact to put up the 30+ points that the Lakers need to win games. That production comes from the best player in the game, and if Kobe is left hunting down either Ray Allen or Rajon Rondo, he simply won’t have the legs in the fourth.

Salting the wound is the fact that if Ray Allen is cold, Rondo can pick up the slack, and vice versa. Short of giving Jordan Farmar more minutes in place of Derek Fisher, the Lakers don’t have the speed to necessarily shut down both players.

This series is coming down to one very interesting, and almost unexpected, factor and that is “energy distribution”. These guys may be Hall of Fame athletes, but every human being has their limitations. The Celtics are better spent revving the scoring engine of Rondo and Allen, leaving Garnett and Perkins to hammer away on the defensive end limiting the damage Gasol can inflict.

It’s difficult to stop Kobe offensively, but not if he’s sweating bullets and dog tired after chasing Allen and Rondo around the perimeter trying to put a hand up to defend field goals. It’s not the formula we might have expected out of the Celtics, but it will be enough to earn the win in Game 3.

As far as the rest of the series goes, my NBA Finals prediction still sits with the Lakers overall, but Boston isn’t going to make this an easy win for them. That will be made evident when the Lakers go in to the hole after Game 3 is said and done.

Furious NBA Finals Prediction – Boston -2.5 (UNDER)