NBA Finals Game 4 – Is their Best Enough?

Game 4 – NBA Championship Series (Lakers lead 2-1)

BetOnline NBA Betting Odds: ORLANDO -2.5, Total 201

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* LA has won five of its last seven games SU

* LA has lost four of its last six road games SU

* LA has played ten of its last 13 games UNDER the total

* ORL has covered eight of its last 11 games

* ORL has won seven of its last eight home games SU

* ORL has played 13 of its last 20 home games UNDER the total

Also….

* ORL has covered five of the last eight meetings

* LA has won 18 of the last 24 meetings SU

* LA has won eight of the last 12 meetings SU as the road team

* The last six meetings in Orlando have gone OVER the total

* ORL has made more three-pointers in six of the last seven meetings

One could say that the Orlando Magic have outplayed the Lakers in this series. Sure, in the first game the Lakers ran away with things, but the Magic probably should have won Game 2 at the buzzer on that backdoor lob to Courtney Lee that just did not fall. On Tuesday night, the Lakers had no business being in the game, or at least that’s what you could have concluded from looking at the box score.

After a torrid first quarter, Kobe Bryant went just 4 of 15 from the field, and some of the weaknesses began to show. None were more obvious than his penchant for throwing up bad shots, and this became a problem for the Lakers offense, because he dominates the ball. Sure, Pau Gasol had 23 points, but that was because he made nine of his 11 shots. Kobe took almost twice as many as anyone else on the team. Conversely, Orlando had four different players taking between 11 and 14 shots. They simply got the ball around better. They had a rebounding edge, and they were on fire in this game, making 75% in the first half and 62.5% for the game, which was a record for the NBA Finals. Bryant made just five of his ten free throws.

Even with all this, the Lakers were never out of the game at any point, and wound up losing by only four points, which gave many of their backers a cover. In other words, Orlando played about as well as it could possibly play, and they could have easily lost this game.

The Magic did not hit very well from the three-point arc (5-of-14), and that is one way where the Lakers are taking them out of their game. Another is denying Dwight Howard clear field goal attempts (only six in the last game). They are able to do this because Howard is not an incredibly versatile offensive player. He doesn’t really have a lot of moves.

What really bodes worst for Orlando here is that Rafer Alston is going to think he’s a scorer again. Alston rebounded from a couple of horrible shooting games with a 20-point performance, hitting eight of his 12 shots from the field. You can almost guarantee he will heave up some more in this game, and those shots aren’t likely to fall from this 38.6% career shooter (41.3% this season in a Magic uniform). He hasn’t really put together two very strong shooting nights in a row since the playoffs began, and when he has a bad night, this team most likely loses.

I’m looking for things to unfold that way tonight, and for the Lakers to steal a win here at the Amway Arena. Take the points with Los Angeles, the 2.5-point undeerdog in the BetOnline NBA Finals sports betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: L.A. LAKERS +2.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)