NBA Finals Game 3 – L.A. Lakers Player Props

The Lakers go into Orlando with a comfortable two games to zero lead. Games 3-5 are all in Orlando, which means that the Lakers will look to finish things off on the Magic’s home court. Kobe has been leading the attack for the Lakers, but he’s gotten major supporting contributions from Gasol, Odom and Fisher.

The BetOnline NBA sportsbook is offering a huge variety of action on the NBA Finals tonight’s Game 3, and I’m going to take a look at some of the player props offered on the Los Angeles Lakers. I’ll give you the line, some key statistics and my analysis, then I’ll give you my pick.

Kobe Bryant Total Points Prop

The Line: Rot. Kobe Bryant Total Points Moneyline
301 Over 33 Points -110
302 Under 33 Points -120

The Numbers:

• NBA Finals: 34.5ppg
• 2009 Playoffs: 30.1ppg
• Regular Season: 26.8ppg
• Vs. Orlando (reg. season): 34.5

Analysis:

The Lakers and Magic have played four games against each other this year and Kobe’s averaging 34.5ppg in them. The Magic are clearly trying to make Kobe a scorer and limit his teammates. Kobe has been more than happy to step into that role. I expect that to be even more true tonight because he’s on the road. I don’t expect Odom, Fisher and the other Lakers (other than Gasol) to be nearly as productive as they were in L.A. That should mean even more scoring for Kobe.

Pick: Kobe Bryant OVER 33 Points

Kobe Bryant Rebounds and Assists Prop

The Line: Rot. Kobe Bryant Total Rebounds and Assists Moneyline
303 Over 12½ Rebounds+Assists -115
304 Under 12½ Rebounds+Assists -115

The Numbers:

• NBA Finals: 6rpg + 8apg = 14 total
• 2009 Playoffs: 5.4rpg + 5.3apg = 10.7 total
• Regular Season: 5.2rpg + 4.9apg = 10.1 total
• Vs. Orlando (reg. season): 10rpg + 7apg = 17 total

Analysis:

Allowing Kobe to operate without constant double teams increases his ability to score, but surprisingly, it also increases his assist and rebound stats. More space means easier passing lanes (although less-open shots for his teammates after the pass). Kobe is an underrated rebounder for a shooting guard, and his relentless drive and competitiveness, heightened by being in the NBA Finals, will mean that he gets to a lot of loose balls and rebounds. If he’s not being double-teamed, he only has to beat one player to the ball. In his four games against the Magic this year, he’s not only averaged 34.5ppg, but also 8rpg and 7.5apg, absolutely monster numbers. I see no reason to bet against that trend continuing.

Pick: Kobe Bryant OVER 12½ Rebounds+Assists

Lamar Odom Total Points Prop

The Line: Rot. Lamar Odom Total Points Moneyline
311 Over 12½ Points -115
312 Under 12½ Points -115

The Numbers:

• NBA Finals: 15ppg
• 2009 Playoffs: 12.3ppg
• Regular Season: 11.2ppg
• Vs. Orlando (reg. season): 10.5ppg

Analysis:

Lamar Odom is the consummate “X-factor” for the Los Angeles Lakers. When’s he on, the Lakers are practically unstoppable. He saved Game 2 for the Lakers with 19 points off the bench in 46 minutes of action (the game went to overtime). It’s extraordinarily unlikely that he logs those kinds of minutes again. Also, he’s been known throughout his entire career for his inconsistency, and he’s kind of due for an off-night. Add in the fact that he’s on the road, and it’s easy to see him having a below-average night.

Pick: Lamar Odom UNDER 12½ Points