NBA Expert Picks: Utah at Denver

(5) Utah at (4) Denver

With no Andrei Kirilenko in the roster for the entire series, the Utah Jazz visit the five point favorite Denver Nuggets this Saturday at 10:30 PM ET at Pepsi Center in the first round of the 2010 NBA playoffs.

NBA Betting Odds:

Utah Jazz +5
Denver Nuggets -5
O/U 209

Kirilenko re-injured his strained right calf on Thursday and will miss the first round of the Jazz’s playoff series against the Denver, a major break for the Nuggets if you ask me.  The Jazz also have more problems to think about as neither Carlos Boozer (strained oblique muscle) nor Mehmet Okur (Achilles tendinitis) practiced with the team on Thursday.

The Jazz management squad is calling Boozer a game-time decision for this Saturday.

Utah was one of the best teams in league against the spread this season, but they had the opportunity to be the number two seed in the West and blew it away last Wednesday with a 100-86 home loss against the Suns.

NBA betting fans should realize the Jazz becomes a .500% team whenever they are off their home court, as they recorded a 21-20 straight up road record this season.  With three of their four best scorers hit by injuries, it is hard to believe Utah could match Carmelo Anthony and the third best offensive team in the league.

Denver will try to take advantage of all the Jazz injuries, knowing that they can’t match their perimeter offense as either Anthony or Chauncey Billups will be open to nail high-percentage shots all night.

The Nuggets have been money in the bank in home games with a 34-7 straight up record this season.  Keep in mind that these two teams met for the last time on January 2 with a 105-95 win by the Jazz, so consider that Denver is 22-7 straight up revenging a loss vs. opponent this year.

Also if you are thinking playoffs, consider that Denver is 13-7 ATS in playoffs games in the last three seasons and Utah is 8-8 ATS.  Besides, remember that 5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

My pick: Denver will cover and the over > > JOIN TO BET < <