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NBA Expert Picks – D-Wade Hosts Granger and the Pacers

January 19, 2010

Pacers vs. Heat (-6.5)
(O/U) 204.5
Tuesday, January 19 – 7:30 PM ET

The Indiana Pacers (14-26 SU, 17-23 ATS, 18-20-2 O/U) will be looking to get back in the win column after having their three-game winning streak snapped the last time out.

The Miami Heat (20-19 SU, 19-20 ATS, 19-20 O/U) will also be looking to get back in the win column after having their modest two-game winning streak abruptly halted in their last contest.

Both teams have one major ingredient in common as they feature one superstar player and a bunch of complimentary role players.

Here is a look at some of the key head-to-head NBA betting trends for tonight’s battle.

  • Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Pacers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Miami.
  • Underdog is 20-6-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are healthy again after getting back superstar forward Danny Granger and veteran Troy Murphy. They had been playing well but lost to the New Orleans Hornets 101-96 on Saturday, failing to cover the NBA moneyline as a 2.5-point home favorite.

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The Pacers have gone an impressive 4-1 ATS over the last five games while scoring over 120 points twice in the last three games and going a respectable 6-4 ATS over their last 10 games overall.

Miami Heat

The Heat couldn’t stop Kevin Durant and got out-rebounded badly in their 98-80 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday.

Miami failed to cover the NBA point spread as a 4-point road underdog and have gone a disappointing 2-3 ATS over the last five games and poor, 4-6 ATS over the last 10 games.

Analysis: I genuinely believe the Pacers and Heat are very evenly matched despite the six-game difference in wins between the ballclubs.

Lest anyone forget, Indian lost its best player, Granger, for an extended period of time and would almost assuredly have a few more wins under their belt were he playing.

The Pacers haven’t been very good on defense this season, allowing a whopping 104.0 points per game (24th), but Indiana ca definitely score the bal, as they’ve topped the 100-point plateau in five of their last six games while going over 120 points three times in the last nine games.

I like the Pacers to keep it close against a Miami team that averages just 97.2 points per game (24th) and allows more points per game defensively (97.7) than they average on offense.

Indiana has five players that average double figures in scoring while the Heat have just four players averaging double figures in scoring and that should be the difference in this contest tonight.

NBA Expert Picks: Indiana +6.5 Points

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