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NBA Betting Picks – Phoenix at Orlando

March 3, 2009

After going a solid 2-1 on three NBA picks Monday your handicapping homeboy, Eric ‘E Dubya’ Williams, is here to put more bankroll-boosting money in bettors’ pockets with this pick on tonight’s Eastern Conference matchup between two of the more surprising teams in the league this season.

The Phoenix Suns (34-25 SU, 23-33-2 ATS, 34-24 O/U) have won two straight games while covering the spread in each contest.

The Orlando Magic (43-16 SU, 37-21-1 ATS, 29-30 O/U) have alternated wins and losses in each of their last four games, but are coming off a solid victory on Saturday that I correctly predicted in the BetOnline Locker Room in my weekly Saturday NBA 4-Pack of Free Picks.

The Suns jumped all over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, winning 118-111 as aging center Shaquille O’Neal turned back the hands of time to score a team-high 33 points and Matt Barnes added 26 points while draining 5 of 7 three-point attempts.

Phoenix covered the spread as 4.5-point home underdogs while the final score played Under the 239-point O/U total.

The Magic used a furious fourth quarter rally to beat the Sixers, outscoring their opponents 36-20 in the final period to cover the spread as 1.5-point road favorites in the BetOnline Sportsbook while the game played Over the posted Over/Under total (196.5).

Orlando got a team-high 23 points from sweet-shooting forwards Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu.

Here is a look at tonight’s key betting trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Pick.

Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Phoenix’s last 13 games when playing on the road against Orlando

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix’s last 6 games on the road

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Phoenix’s last 10 games when playing Orlando

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Orlando’s last 13 games when playing at home against Phoenix

Orlando is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando’s last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Orlando’s last 10 games when playing Phoenix

NBA Odds

Phoenix Suns +7 -110

Orlando Magic -7 -110

Over 230½ -110

Under 230½ -110

Analysis: While the Phoenix Suns have won and covered the spread in a whopping six straight games against the Magic – and are playing solid basketball after getting back to their former run-and-gun style, the Suns’ last two wins over Orlando have been by 1 point and 4 points respectively.

While the Magic are in the midst of adjusting to life without Jameer Nelson, I like them to narrowly cover the spread in this contest as I think it’s just a couple of points on the high side.

I also think the O/U total is a bit on the high side as well.

NBA Free Picks: Magic +7 Points/Under 230½ Total Points

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