NBA Betting – Heat Faces Phoenix

NBA bettors know that the Miami Heat has not suffered many losses lately, but they are coming off a defeat against Dallas, and they are in "bounceback" mode. The opponent for Thursday night is the Phoenix Suns, who are high-flying and looking to get to the .500 mark. In the NBA betting odds, Miami is favored by six points, with the total on the game listed at 208 points.

NBA Betting

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Miami Heat (21-9 SU, 13-16-1 ATS) at Phoenix Suns (13-14 SU, 11-15-1 ATS)

Live at US Airways Center

Phoenix, AZ

Thursday, December 23 — 10:30 PM ET

NBA Betting Odds: Miami -6, Phoenix +6, Total 208

Here are some of the NBA betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• Miami is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
• Miami has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
• Miami has won 12 of its last 13 games SU
• Miami has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total
• Phoenix has covered two of its last seven games
• Phoenix has played ten of its last 15 games OVER the total
• Phoenix has lost five of its last seven games SU
• Phoenix has won 18 of its last 25 home games SU
• Phoenix has covered two of its last seven home games

You might want to take a look at the contrast here: Phoenix has allowed 100 points or more in eight straight games, while the Heat has permitted just 91 points per game on the road. Yes, when these guys get together they can apparently play some defense. In the last game they didn’t execute very well offensively, making less than 41% of their shots, and despite sinking eleven three-pointers, they lost 98-96 to the Mavericks, failing to cover as a 6.5-point favorite in the NBA betting odds.

Phoenix has been a hot shooting team in its last two, hitting 57.5% against Oklahoma City, then 53.5% against San Antonio. They lost the latter game, though both of them were NBA betting covers. The Suns have had a difficult time preventing the other team from putting the ball in the hoop, as they allow 48.8% field goals.

Here are the head-to-head NBA betting trends for this game:

• Five of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total
• Miami has won five of the last six meetings SU
• Miami has covered six of the last seven meetings
• Eleven of the last 16 meetings in Phoenix have gone OVER the total
• Phoenix has won eight of the last 12 meetings SU as the home team
• Miami has had the shooting edge in five of the last seven meetings
• Phoenix has made more three-pointers in eight of the last ten meetings

Phoenix allows 110.2 points a game, but I’m not sure that is what the Heat are going to concern themselves with. What they are mostly worried about is putting a corral on Steve Nash and that Suns’ attack that has produced 108.5 ppg, which is more than anyone in the NBA but has produced only eleven NBA betting covers in 27 games. I think this is probably something that Miami is equipped to deal with.

They will slow the pace and the Phoenix fast break. They will defend from the perimeter; in fact, they allow just 30% three-pointers, so they are going to make Phoenix take some bad shots at the very least. And the Heat has had some experience playing against a similar offensive scheme in New York, where they had some problems keeping the Knicks in check – in the first half, that is, before rolling to a 113-91 victory. We’re laying the six points in NBA betting for Thursday.

JAY’S PLAY: MIAMI -6 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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