National League Futures – Odds to Win Pennant Heavily Favor Philadelphia

The only question you should be asking yourself if you’re betting within National League futures on the odds to win the pennant is this: “If I’m not betting on the Philadelphia Phillies, how much money do I want to lose?” The defending champion Phillies are -140 to notch a three-peat and march past the Braves, Reds and Giants.

Of course, the reason that the money is so tight on the Phillies is because they won the World Series two years ago, have back-to-back National League Pennants hanging in their rafters and bolstered their pitching by going after Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt this season.

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Which has a huge impact for the National League’s odds to win the pennant. Philadelphia’s three aces have routinely confounded the rest of the National League. Since September 1st, the Phillies have gone 14-3 with their three best at the stripe.

There isn’t a batting order in the entire league that would look forward to trying to hit around these three guys, but if any team can do it before the World Series, it’s the Cincinnati Reds (+500 odds to win National League).

Cincinnati has the fifth best scoring offense in the majors, bolstered by MVP candidate Joey Votto. For his part, Votto hit .324 / .424 / .600 this season while drilling in 113 RBI’s and swatting 37 home runs. If the Phillies choose to pitch around Votto, that will leave the majority of the scoring duty to the capable Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce. It’s not a great idea overall, but it’s a far better idea than pitching right at Votto.

Still, nothing will save the Cincinnati Reds from their own pitching troubles. The team will lead off with Edinson Volquez, which is quickly becoming a lambasted decision by Dusty Baker. The hitting may be good enough to rattle the cage of Hamels-Halladay-Oswalt, but I doubt that the Reds will be able to stop Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard from running the score.

Which leaves the Atlanta Braves, who have +500 National League odds to win it all, and the San Francisco Giants (+300). While the pitching in Philadelphia will deservedly garner all the praise, the Braves and Giants have great pitching too.

Tim Lincecum has led the charge for the Giants, cleaning up his act in the home stretch to go 5-1 SU in his final six games of the season. That was after he had lost five straight games for the Giants in August. With cleaner throwing mechanics, Lincecum could give the Giants an inside track by opening Game 1 as the starter.

The Atlanta Braves are saving their best for last, for some strange reason. Tim Hudson was their best pitcher down the home stretch, but won’t be dispatched until Game 3. Sure, the Braves can certainly win that game, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be in a two-game hole heading in to it.

The value bet in the National League odds to win stand with the San Francisco Giants at +300. But pitting a bunch of youngsters against the proven veterans in Philly is a dangerous game to play. Still, if you’re looking for the guaranteed bet, then side with Philadelphia at -140. If you want to dance with the devil in the National League’s odds to win the pennant, then make the Giants your two-step partner.

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