NASCAR Odds – Kyle Busch favored in Jeff Byrd 500, and for Good Reason

Those people who take a close look at the NASCAR odds know that Kyle Busch, the young and super-talented driver, is favored in the Jeff Byrd 500 this weekend, and for a very good reason.

He has simply raced this track as if he owns it. The Jeff Byrd 500 takes place Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN, and constitutes the "spring race" at the track. Of course, it hasn’t mattered much to Busch whether it’s spring or summer. The race gets underway at 1 PM ET and can be seen on FOX. In the NASCAR odds that have been posted on the race, Busch is the solid +300 favorite, with Carl Edwards at +500.

NASCAR Odds

Jeff Byrd 500

Bristol Motor Speedway

Sunday, March 20 — 1 PM ET

TV: FOX

NASCAR Odds

To Win Jeff Byrd 500

• Carl Edwards +500
• Clint Bowyer +1500
• Dale Earnhardt Jr +2500
• David Reutimann +2500
• Denny Hamlin +700
• Greg Biffle +1200
• Jamie McMurray +2500
• Jeff Gordon +1000
• Jimmie Johnson +700
• Joey Logano +2500
• Juan Pablo Montoya +2500
• Kevin Harvick +1000
• Kurt Busch +1000
• Kyle Busch +300
• Mark Martin +2500
• Matt Kenseth +1200
• Ryan Newman +2000
• Tony Stewart +800
• Field (Any Other Driver) +4000

If there was any doubt as to how good Kyle Busch is at Bristol Motor Speedway, those doubts flew out the window last summer, when the Las Vegan captured the checkered flag in all three of the NASCAR touring series races in the same week – the Camping World Trucks, Nationwide and Sprint Cup events. Such a thing had never been done in NASCAR before. No one should be surprised in the least that he is the favorite in the NASCAR odds, as bettors can get only a +300 price on him.

Kyle (we use the first name to distinguish him from brother Kurt, who is currently tied for the Sprint Cup lead with Tony Stewart and is +1000 in NASCAR odds to win this year’s Cup) has won three of the last four Sprint Cup races at Bristol – both of them in 2009 and, as we said, the summer (August) race last year. He’s got four Sprint Cup wins overall there, six finishes in the top two, and nine top ten results in his last ten races. And it deserves mention that while he has done all of this, he has never started higher than ninth. That’s a big-time feat on the short track, and we mention that because it takes a different kind of driving and a different kind of discipline to compete on a short track, as opposed to, say, a superspeedway.

His career average finish at Bristol is 9.3, and he’s got the fourth-best Average Running Position (12.5). He also has the best Driver Rating (106.0), and highest Average Green Flag Speed of anyone who will be making the start on Sunday. By comparison, Carl Edwards, who is the second favorite in the NASCAR odds, has a Driver Rating of 89.4. This race comes at an opportune time for Kyle, as he broke down at Las Vegas two weeks ago and had an official finish of 38th, which took him from #1 in the Sprint Cup standings all the way down to 14th.

Can he do it again at Bristol? Whatever his qualifying situation is, it doesn’t really matter to us, because he has shown that he can win, even if he is back in the pack. We have no problem taking him at the short +300 in the NASCAR odds.

JAY’S PLAY: KYLE BUSCH (+300) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)