NASCAR Odds – Can Indy 500 Winner Make Dent in Upper Echelon of NASCAR?

The appearance of Danica Patrick on the Nationwide Series circuit for a brief period of time this year (she will return) has prompted a lot of talk about the idea of "crossing over" into NASCAR, and some of that tangential conversation has centered on Sam Hornish Jr., who has not "found himself" yet after three-plus seasons racing in the Sprint Cup. This lack of success is indeed reflected in the NASCAR betting odds; Hornish is an 80/1 shot to win the Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, and is one of the longest of betting long shots – at 100/1 odds, in fact, to capture the Sprint Cup title.

What Patrick has accomplished in open-wheels racing pales in comparison to what Hornish has done, considering he has won the Indy 500 as well as the Indy Car championship three times. Still only 30, there is certainly time for him to get it done, but his progress, if any, has been in baby steps, and does not match that of another crossover driver, Juan Pablo Montoya, who won the Indy 500 and the Monaco Grand Prix and finished 8th in Cup points in 2009.

Hornish is 30th this year, was 28th in ’09, 35th in ’08, and 62nd in 2007. Sure, there is quite a transition to stock cars, and the competition is not only deeper, but more than capable. Even considering those things, however, Harnish has to be looked upon as a disappointment as we head into the meat of the NASCAR schedule.

Interestingly, the 19-year-old Joey Logano, also a relatively newcomer to NASCAR, has taken to things quite nicely, with one win and nine top tens in less than fifty races, compared to seven top tens in 79 starts for Hornish.

Let’s look at qualifying matchups involving these two drivers:

Qualifying Matchups – Samsung Mobile 500
Friday, April 16 – 11 AM ET
Texas Motor Speedway, Fort Worth

MARCOS AMBROSE -140
SAM HORNISH JR +110
— Ambrose, in his second year full-time on the Sprint Cup circuit, finished 17th in the 2009 points standings and has not been a very big factor at Texas Motor Speedway, landing 21st, 15th and 41st. Everyone seems to be waiting for him to get comfortable enough to be a factor in NASCAR, and more people than that are running out of patience with Sam Hornish, who is now 0-for-79 in his Sprint Cup efforts and crashed 20 times in 36 starts last year. Hornish, who lit up the Indy Car world, has not gotten the hang of it in stock cars, although he has scored respectable finishes of 13th and 18th place in his last two races. Hornish’s Penske Racing team (which has also underachieved) is trying real hard, and they know that the only way they are going to improve their actual race results is to improve in qualifying. Ambrose qualified fourth for the Subway Fresh Fit 600, while Hornish started third.

HORNISH (+110) ***

JOEY LOGANO -110
DAVID REUTIMANN -120
— Of course, by now you know that Reutimann, who races for Michael Waltrip’s team, captured the pole at last year’s Samsung Mobile 500. He then went on to finish 11th, and altogether he has been in the "Sweet 16" three times at this track. I think it’s fair to say his results in the 2010 season have been disappointing. Reutiman was fifth at Daytona and followed that with a couple of decent runs, but he has been sliding in the standings since. Logano, the 19-year-old wunderkind (is there any point where we can stop calling him that?) has not shown much at TMS, although he qualified tenth last time out. He won the pole at the Food City 500 a few weeks ago and started sixth at Phoenix last week. Logano is not considered "ready" by some, but make no mistake – he is very much in contention for a Chase spot.

LOGANO (-110) ***

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