Monday Night NFL Props – Quarterback Play to Make the DIfference

Those sportsbook customers who are taking a look at the Monday Night NFL betting props in the game between Jacksonville and Tennessee know that the Titans and Jaguars are largely going to be dependent on the efforts of the star running backs.

That leaves the quarterbacks in a secondary but perhaps difference-making role.

How will they do in Monday’s game, which kicks off at 8:30 PM ET at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (natural turf)?

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The Titans are a three-point favorite over the Jaguars, with a total of 45.5 points, and in the numbers for the Monday Night NFL props, the over-under on passing yards for Vince Young is 190.5, while it is 175.5 for David Garrard.

Tennessee Titans (3-2 SU & ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2 SU & ATS)

Live at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium

Monday, October 18 — 8:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

MNF Odds:

Tennessee -3

Jacksonville +3

Total 45.5

All of these Monday Night NFL props are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars:

VINCE YOUNG – TOTAL COMPLETIONS

Over 15½ Completions -125

Under 15½ Completions -105

You know, this would seem like a figure that was not so daunting to NFL quarterbacks. But in Vince Young’s entire career, which is now in its fifth season, only 15 times has he completed more than the number that is in this Monday night NFL prop.

Some of this could be a bit deceiving, since he hasn’t exactly had an uninterrupted string of starts for the Titans, but Young has never been known as a prolific passer. In his six appearances against Jacksonville, he averaged about 14 completions.

He’s got a security blanket of sorts in Chris Johnson and that is the bread-and-butter this team goes to first when trying to move the ball.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 15.5 COMPLETIONS (-105) **

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VINCE YOUNG – TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 190½ Yards -115

Under 190½ Yards -115

As far as the Monday night NFL props are concerned, this would be considered something of a companion prop. If you want to take a look at the numbers, 191 yards – which he would need to get the "over" here – would be something of an accomplishment for him. In 50 career games, he has done it 13 times.

And you know, we really don’t like to mention this, but Jeff Fisher has demonstrated himself to be the kind of coach who wouldn’t hesitate relieving Young with Kerry Collins if the situation seems to warrant it. In Young’s six career games against the Jaguars, he has averaged 136 yards a contest.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 190.5 YARDS (-115) ***

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VINCE YOUNG – TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES

Over 1½ TD Passes +160

Under 1½ TD Passes -200

Young is one of those quarterbacks who is better than the sum of his parts, if you know what I mean.

He has never shown superior statistics, but he has led the Titans to wins, and I think it is kind of remarkable that he has been able to grab a leadership role back after the debacle he had a couple of seasons ago where he went AWOL and was benched, while Kerry Collins led the team to the AFC’s best record. In his 50 career games, Young has thrown for 38 touchdowns, and four of those have come against Jacksonville.

In 23 road games, he has thrown 17 TD’s, and interestingly enough, his ratio between TD’s and interceptions has been better as the visitor.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 1.5 TD’S (-200) *

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DAVID GARRARD – TOTAL COMPLETIONS

Over 17½ Completions -115

Under 17½ Completions -115

In his first game of the season, Garrard had his highest-ever quarterback rating (138.9) against Denver, when he completed 16 of 21 passes. Things got pretty rough for him over the next couple of games; for one thing, he was intercepted four times by San Diego and then was just 13 of 30 against Philadelphia as his team was left for dead.

In his last two games, however, Garrard has come on string, going 33 of 42 with five touchdowns. Does that mean he is ready to move past the number that is posted in this Monday night NFL prop? He hasn’t done so yet this year, but it wasn’t really that uncommon last season, when he averaged almost 20 completions per game.

Now that he is on his game, maybe Jack Del Rio shows some more faith in him and takes some of the pressure off Maurice Jones-Drew, who has a bothersome injury to his wrist.

OVER 17.5 COMPLETIONS (-115) **

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DAVID GARRARD – TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 175½ Yards -125

Under 175½ Yards -105

Garrard has been right around this mark a few times this season, so it is certainly not anything that is out of his reach. Tennessee has been allowing 243 passing yards per game, as they seem to have been employing a risk-taking defense that is designed to get to the passer (22 sacks) but may leave a few openings.

In 13 meetings with the Titans in his career, he has averaged 143.5 yards passing and 6.6 yards an attempt, so history may not be with him. Last year was not his best season, but if he can approach his 2009 numbers, he can get to this number in the Monday night NFL prop.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 175.5 YARDS (-125) *

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