Monday Night NFL Props – Flacco’s Performance Key for Ravens

Those who look at the Monday night NFL props can appreciate the fact that the Baltimore Ravens are in a fight to win the AFC betting North division title and get a home game in the playoffs, and part of that involves the performance of quarterback Joe Flacco.

The third-year pro will be in the spotlight as the Ravens visit Houston to play the Texans in this game that is slated to start at 8:30 PM ET at Reliant Stadium (natural turf) and will suddenly be competing with the Giants-Vikings game for attention on Monday night.

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The over-under for Flacco’s passing yards in the Monday Night NFL prop is 263.5, with the over priced at -120 and the under at -110.

Monday Night NFL Props

Baltimore Ravens (8-4 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) at Houston Texans (5-7 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Live at Reliant Stadium

Houston, TX

Monday, December 13 — 8:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

Monday Night NFL Odds:

Baltimore -3

Houston +3

Total 46

Monday Night NFL Props

JOE FLACCO — TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 263.5 yards -120

Under 263.5 yards -110

Joe Flacco is a guy who has improved himself from his first year to his second and his second year to this third, and that is not something that is lost on bettors in Monday Night NFL props. Last year you probably wouldn’t see an over-under of 263.5 yards for his passing yards, but here we are. he is throwing for 249 yards a game, which is up 23 yards from last year, which in turn is up about 40 yards from the year before. Flacco’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is better this season than it has been in either of the previous two seasons, as he was thrown 19 touchdowns with only eight interceptions.

But for the purpose of investigating this Monday Night NFL prop, it may be useful to break that down a little. When you look at his statistics, it is very clear that Flacco plays with more confidence at home than he does on the road. At M&T Bank Stadium, the home field of the Ravens, he has thrown eleven TD passes and been intercepted only once, and his QB rating there is sizzling (107.1). Things change when he goes on the road, however, and from one perspective, they change radically. As the visitor, Flacco has thrown just eight TD’s and has been picked off seven times. That is quite the difference in the ratio, isn’t it? The disparity has become a lot more pronounced this season.

One thing that hasn’t changed a whole lot, however, is Flacco’s yardage figure, on a per-game basis, and that is something worth focusing on in this Monday Night NFL prop. Just look at it – he’s thrown for 255 yards a game at home and 243 on the road. That’s not a big difference, and his career numbers are also pretty even in the home-road dynamic. Of course, none of those averages comes close to the 263.5 yards that constitutes the over-under in this Monday Night NFL prop.

But if there is an "elephant in the room," it is the general ineptitude of the Houston secondary, which is not just bad. If it was only that, they could possibly be expected to put forth a big effort now and then against a good team. No, they are excessively permissive, so much so that they have a chance to set the NFL’s all-time record for futility. The Texans have allowed 287.4 passing yards per game, and that puts them on pace to give up 4598 yards, which would surpass the current record set by the 1995 Atlanta Falcons, which is 4541. Houston has allowed 27 touchdown passes and 8.2 yards an attempt, both of which bode well for Flacco, and backers of Flacco, in the Monday Night NFL prop. Considering also that Baltimore’s running game hasn’t worked as well as it has in the past (3.6 ypc), we would expect Flacco to run toward that which actually has a better chance of succeeding, and we know what direction theat points us.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 263.5 YARDS (-120) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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