Monday Night NFL Props – Cards vs Niners

When we examine the Monday night NFL props for the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals, a couple of things come to mind – that this isn’t a particularly attractive game for the ESPN package, and that neither of these teams had the current starting quarterback penciled in at the start of the season.

The game between these two teams, who are, interestingly enough, contenders for the NFC West title, takes place at 8:30 PM ET at University of Phoenix Stadium (natural turf) in Glendale, AZ. The Niners are a 1.5-point favorite. In the Monday night NFL props, the over-under on Smith’s passing yards is posted at 215.5 yards, while for Anderson it’s 232.5 yards.

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NFL Betting Odds

San Francisco 49ers (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (3-7 SU & ATS)

Live at University of Phoenix Stadium

Glendale, AZ

Monday, November 29 — 8:30 PM ET

TV:   ESPN

NFL Odds:

San Francisco  -1.5

Arizona  +1.5

Total 40.5

Monday Night NFL props

TROY SMITH – TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 215.5  yards  -120

Under 215.5 yards  -110

TROY SMITH – TOTAL COMPLETIONS

Over 17.5 completions  -115

Under 17.5 completions  -115

Things looked kind of bleak for Troy Smith during training camp, as the Baltimore Ravens had acquired Marc Bulger to cover the backup role for Joe Flacco, preferring a more experienced hand in that position. Smith begrudgingly accepted it, although his teammates did not. Some of them made open comments about the need (or lack of same) to have Bulger in camp, and that was out of loyalty to Smith, who had gathered a lot of loyalty among his teammates. When John Beck was let go, it was thought that Smith would hang on as a #3 QB, but Smith was cut altogether, leaving him without a job until he got a call for the Niners, who were not getting what they wanted out of Alex Smith, the former #1 overall choice, who performed well down the stretch last season but regressed. Now Monday night NFL props bettors are evaluating whether Smith can top 215 yards in this game.

He was very strong in the first two starts he had, not only throwing for 196 and 356 yards, but also 11.7 yards an attempt, which is a tremendous mark in the NFL. Last week it was not such a pleasant experience, with only 148 yards in 31 attempts against Tampa Bay as San Francisco was shut out. Was the 356-yard effort against St. Louis an anomaly? Maybe, but the Niners showed that with THIS particular Smith they were looking to do some more down-the-field throwing. Consider that Alex had only 6.4 yards an attempt. In the end, we’d like to have some faith in Troy, but I don’t know that he is anywhere near an automatic to eclipse this figure, even though he has very capable receivers at his disposal. And there is always the possibility that if things aren’t going well, Mike Singletary could pull the trigger and look elsewhere. In the Monday night NFL props, we’ll go under on both counts.

JAY’S PLAYS:  UNDER 215.5 YARDS (-120) ** and UNDER 17.5 COMPLETIONS (-115) *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Monday Night NFL props

DEREK ANDERSON – TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 232.5 yards  -115

Under 232.5 yards  -115

I remember first seeing Derek Anderson when he was playing at Oregon State, and thinking that this was a kid with a lot of physical tools who just made too many foolish mistakes. I guess sort of pattern has held true in the NFL, so when we look at 235.5 yards as the number in the Monday night NFL props, we have that in mind. Matt Leinart, of course, was supposed to be the quarterback for the Cardinals this season, as they transitioned past Kurt Warner. But Leinart, who has never really performed that well in actual NFL games, did not seize the job in the pre-season, the same way he failed to take command before, which had made it possible for Warner to make his comeback in the first place.

I figured that with Anderson in the fold, Arizona would sooner or later turn to him anyway. Well, it was sooner. Instead of continuing to deal with the under-achiever, the Cards cut Leinart instead, and Anderson started the season. I suppose I was still thinking about the one big season Anderson had, when he threw 29 TD’s (along with 19 interceptions) for the Browns, and made a trip to the Pro Bowl. Since then, however, he’s had 19 touchdowns and 26 INT’s, and he’s averaging 178 yards a game this year. His 6.5 yards per attempt is only slightly higher than what Alex Smith had for the Niners, and along the way he lost his job to rookie Max Hall, albeit briefly. He’s thrown for better than the posted total in this Monday night NFL prop four times, but with the Arizona running game very undependable, they’ve had him throw it 91 times over the last two weeks. Consequently, he had had 617 yards against the Seahawks and Chiefs, although these were double-digit losses. Beanie Wells hasn’t been 100% healthy, and although the Cards may not be playing from all that far behind here, there is reason to believe that Arizona will continue to hoist it up.

JAY’S PLAY:  OVER 232.5 YARDS (-115) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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