Monday Night Football Odds on Pats vs. Fins

The New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins game on Oct. 4 th figures to be a terrific slugfest according to the Monday Night Football odds.

The home team Fins are +1 point dogs to hand New England their second loss of 2010. Right now, football handicappers are all over that spread. They’re backing the Patriots with gusto. 65% of bettors believe that New England will win and cover while only 35% are going with the home team Miami Dolphins.

While the NFL football odds makers aren’t sure who deserves to be the favorite in this game, they have no issues when it comes to the totals. A huge 46 ½ point total has been set for this game.

What’s the best wager on this game? Who will cover the spread and is betting over under the total even worth considering?

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida

When: Oct. 4 th, 2010 at 8:30 pm EST

TV: ESPN

Radio: Sirius – 125 (NE) 126 (MIA) 

NFL Betting Lines

New England Patriots -1 -110 O 46 ½ -110

Miami Dolphins +1 -110 U 46 ½ -110

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According to the trends, more respect should be given to the Dolphins by the Monday Night Football odds makers.

• The Miami Dolphins are 8 and 2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the AFC East.
• The Miami Dolphins are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The New England Patriots are 1 and 4 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
• The New England Patriots are 0-3-2 versus a team with a winning record.

I’m not sure why the Monday Night football odds don’t favor the Fins by at least 3 points in this game. The New England Patriots have a great offense, that’s true, but after that, well, New England just doesn’t seem like a very good team.

How can I say that about a 2 and 1 team with Tom Brady at QB and Wes Welker and Randy Moss at the wide receiver positions? There’s a whole other part of NFL football after the offense. It’s called the defense and when it comes New England, the defense is non-existent. The Patriots allow 260.3 passing yards per game. They allow 119 yards per game on the ground. Teams average over 27 points against New England.

Compare that to the Miami Dolphins who give up less than 20 points per game and it’s obvious to me that New England just isn’t as good of a team as Miami. Here’s another stat for football handicappers: the Dolphins have outscored their opponents by 22 points so far this season, 68 to 47, while the Patriots have outscored their opponents by a measly 8 points, 90 to 82.

The Boise State Patriots would rather out score their opponents than try to stop them on D. They almost blew it against the Buffalo Bills last Sunday when they allowed one of the worst offensive teams in the league to put up 30 points and amass 374 total yards against them. What has happened to that Bill Belichick genius defensive mind? Who knows, maybe he’s lost it, but Miami Dolphins, who has a decent offense now that Brandon Marshall plays wide receiver for them, figures to really exploit the holes in the Patriots’ D.

New England will move the ball but I don’t see them having as much success against a Miami Dolphins team that can control the clock with their excellent running game and always seems to play Brady and Co. tough.

That brings me to another bet in this game worth making besides backing the Dolphins at +1. To me, the total is way, way exaggerated in this game. The Monday Night Football odds on the total just don’t make sense. Before last week’s game where they gave up 31 points, the Fins hadn’t given up more than 10 in the first two weeks of the season and both games between these two teams last season went under 46.

So, there are two bets to make in this game. It makes sense to back the Fins at +1 and to bet under the total of 46 ½. Those are the two best ways to exploit the Monday Night Football odds in the sportsbook.

NFL Betting Pick: Miami Dolphins +1 -110 and Under 46 ½ -110

Monday Night Football odds for the Pats vs. Fins are up in the sportsbook!