Monday Night Football: Colts and Dolphins from Miami

Monday Night Football

Fireworks  flew in the pair of Monday night contests in Week 1 for handicappers on the NFL betting trail, with both games going down to the wire. The Patriots escaped with a 25-24 win over the Bills (+13) on a last-second touchdown, while the Chargers also slipped out the side door in their 24-20 edging of the Raiders (+10).

Making money isn’t likely to be as exciting this week when the Colts tangle with the Dolphins on South Beach. Scoring came at a premium for both teams in Week 1, so expect a low-scoring affair when Indianapolis and Miami hit the gridiron on Monday night. 

Indianapolis at Miami (+3, 42) – 8:30 PM ET

The Colts (1-0, 0-1 ATS) look to get their running game going against the Dolphins (0-1, 0-1 ATS) when they return to the site of their Super Bowl triumph in the Monday nighter at LandShark Stadium. Second-last in the league in rushing last season, Indianapolis managed only 71 yards on the ground in their narrow 14-12 victory over Jacksonville (+6.5) last week.

Indy averaged only 79.6 yards rushing per game in 2008, causing speculation the Colts might replace running back Joseph Addai in the offseason. Addai is back as the featured runner in Indianapolis, but he might not be for long after gaining only 42 yards on the ground against the Jaguars. Establishing a solid running attack is paramount for the Colts, who head into their matchup with the Dolphins with the newly-signed Hank Baskett as their No. 2 wide receiver.

Baskett was brought in after Anthony Gonzalez went down with a knee injury against Jacksonville, and he’ll have to get acclimatized to Peyton Manning right away. Manning leaned heavily on top target Reggie Wayne in the opener: Wayne finished with 162 yards receiving on 10 receptions with a touchdown for Indy, while Manning went 28-of-38 for 301 yards with a TD toss and an interception.

Miami’s run defense was solid in their 19-7 defeat at Atlanta (-4) in its opener last week, even if the Dolphins couldn’t cover the spread. The Fish held Falcons running back Michael Turner to only 65 yards on 22 carries, but couldn’t put much pressure on Matt Ryan.

Miami had myriad difficulties moving the ball against Atlanta, and it all centered on the play of Chad Pennington. The runner-up to Manning for the 2008 NFL MVP award, Pennington was an efficient 21-of-29 for 176 yards with a touchdown and a pick last week, but he couldn’t make plays when it counted.

Including three fumbles last week, Pennington and the Dolphins have nine turnovers in their last two games dating back to last season’s AFC Wild Card loss to Baltimore. This comes after Miami led the league in turnovers against in the ’08 regular season with only 13. If Pennington can’t clean this up, don’t be surprised if Dolphins wildcat quarterback Pat White or conventional backup Chad Henne gets a crack at running the offense.

Like Indianapolis, Miami struggled to get the running game on track last week: Ronnie Brown had 43 yards on 10 attempts, while Ricky Williams finished with 39 yards on seven carries. Failing to move the ball on the ground puts all the more pressure on Pennington, who isn’t very effective when he needs to throw the ball more than 10 yards. If the Dolphins can’t rush the ball against the Colts, it’ll be a long night for bettors banking on the underdog payday in the Monday nighter.

Don’t be caught off guard if oddsmakers adjust the line before kickoff. Public bettors are riding Indy, with about 72% of wagers on the spread having come in on the Colts through Sunday night. That type of consensus number doesn’t sit well with the guys setting lines, whom prefer as close to a 50-50 split as possible. Because of that, Miami could be getting 3.5 or four points by the time Monday evening rolls around.

The under is the smart wager on the total, especially considering how both teams stalled on offense last week. The Colts are 2-6 O/U in their last eight games dating back to last season, while the Dolphins have played under the number in seven of their last nine games on grass, and seven of their last eight against the AFC.