Monday Night Football – Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys

NFL betting is often about following (or fading) desperate teams, and this week’s Monday nighter between the Cowboys and Panthers is no exception.

Carolina can take some inspiration from Detroit, which won its first game in 19 tries with a 19-14 shading of Washington as 6.5-point underdogs at Ford Field on Sunday. Or maybe the Panthers should look at the venerable Brett Favre, who somehow found Greg Lewis in the end zone from 32 yards out with two seconds left to lift Minnesota past San Francisco (+7) 27-24 at the Metrodome.

Sometimes handicapping comes down to evaluating motivation. Will Carolina have enough cojones to cover against Dallas? 

Carolina at Dallas (-8.5, 45) – 8:30 PM ET

Tony Romo and the Cowboys (1-1, 1-1 ATS) look to get back to track when they host the struggling Panthers (0-2, 0-2 ATS) at Cowboys Stadium in a pivotal game for both teams in the Monday nighter.

Dallas fell 33-31 in its opener at their new monster stadium to the rival Giants (+3) in last week’s Sunday nighter, and it’s a game it should have covered for bettors. The Cowboys were officially beat on Lawrence Tynes’ 37-yard field goal with 0:04 left on the clock, but the reality is Romo – and to a lesser degree offensive coordinator Jason Garrett’s play calling – cost the team the game.

Romo was only 13-of-29 with a career-low 127 yards passing and a touchdown for Dallas, and his three interceptions all led to New York TDs. Counting backup running back Felix Jones’ fumble, the Cowboys turned it over four times, as Romo put up an ugly 29.6 passer rating.

Thing is, Garrett kept going to the well when he should have kept calling for the ball to go to No. 1 runner Marion Barber. Dallas ran for 251 yards last week, with 124 yards coming from Barber, who also had a score and two receptions for 31 yards.

Barber (strained quadriceps) is doubtful against the Panthers, but that shouldn’t stop the Cowboys from pounding the ground on Monday night. Jones and third-stringer Tashard Choice are more than capable of picking up the slack against a Carolina defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense through two weeks at 33 points against per game.

Dallas has defensive issues of its own, and it’ll need to rectify them to cover the 8.5-point spread. The Cowboys’ defense allowed 330 passing yards to Eli Manning and the Giants last week, and have given up 877 total yards through two games. That’s good for third worst in the NFL, and is unconscionable for a team run by Wade Phillips.

The Panthers were stopped 28-20 at Atlanta (-6) last week in a game in which they deserved a better fate against the number. Carolina outgained the Falcons 440-371, but it wasn’t enough to keep the Panthers from dropping their seventh straight game (0-7 ATS) including the preseason and last year’s playoff debacle against Arizona.

Jake Delhomme was much better last week than in the opener, but calls for his head won’t stop until Carolina actually wins a game outright. The veteran quarterback was 25-of-41 for 308 yards with a touchdown and a pick for the Panthers, who got 131 yards receiving on eight catches from Steve Smith.

Head coach John Fox is also on the hot seat after being given a vote of confidence following last season’s surprise meltdown against the Cardinals. You have to think Fox would survive a loss to the Cowboys, but he might not last too long past that if his team continues to lose. Carolina would certainly be up against the wall if it starts the season 0-3.

Consensus betting behavior has been predicable with the potential absences of Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (probable, heel), and WR Muhsin Muhammad (questionable, leg) seemingly having no effect on the action. Oddsmakers opened Carolina as 9.5-point underdogs, but the spread’s been bet down to +8.5 after about 53% of plays on the line have come in on the Panthers.

The over is the sharp play on the 45-point total, which opened at 47.5 early last week. Carolina is 9-1 O/U in its last 10 games against the NFC, while the Panthers have played over the number in eight of their last 10 contests overall. For its part, Dallas is 7-2-1 O/U in its last 10 games on Monday night. Also check our Carolina vs Dallas XBOX simulation.