MNF Odds – Cowboys Need to Get Going

Those who love to bet the MNF betting lines know that the Dallas Cowboys are in a desperate position, having to get going right now or lose touch with the New York Giants in the NFC East.

On Monday night these teams get together at Cowboys Stadium (artificial turf) in Arlington, TX, with game time at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN.

The Giants have been going through an impressive stretch, having won three games in a row,. while Dallas is still looking for a way to, well, get out of its own way. The Cowboys are listed as a three-point favorite in the MNF odds, with the total on the game posted at 44.5 points.

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New York Giants (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (1-4 SU & ATS)

Live at Cowboys Stadium

Arlington, TX

Sunday, October 25– 8:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

MNF Odds:

Dallas -3

N.Y. Giants +3

Total 44.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact the MNF odds on this game:

• New York has played eight of its last eleven games OVER the total
• New York has won four of its last six games SU
• New York has covered five of its last 17 games
• New York has played five of its last seven road games OVER the total
• New York has lost five of its last seven road games SU
• Dallas has played eleven of its last 16 games UNDER the total
• Dallas has lost five of its last six games SU
• Dallas has covered one of its last six games
• Dallas has won twelve of its last 17 home games SU

If there was such a stats as a "penalty ratio," the Cowboys would be dead last in the NFL and one of the worst teams in that category since the merger. They’ve been penalized 49 times (including eleven last week) for 404 yards, while their opponents have suffered only 21 penalties (169 yards).

If there was an art to drawing penalties, the Giants are doing quite alright in that regard, as the opposition has been flagged 48 times for 396 yards.

When you hear about teams that don’t commit many penalties, they are referred to as being "well-coached." So doesn’t it stand to reason that when they are penalized excessively, they are poorly coached? As we assess the MNF odds, I wonder if that is the conclusion Jerry Jones is coming to as he ponders this season – the season where he hosts the Super Bowl in his dream facility – slipping away.

Yet no move is being made in the Cowboy coaching ranks, and no statements that have given any indication that it is being contemplated. "I’m very disappointed," he said. "But I would never consider firing a coach during the season."

Would a Monday night loss push that thought process along a little?

The offensive line problems that Dallas was having at the beginning of the year have flared up again – to an extent. Guard Kyle Kosier, who was hurt at the beginning of the season, is out again for a few weeks with an Achilles injury. This becomes an extra concern against the Giants’ pass rush, with Osi Umenyiora, who’s had seven sacks the last three weeks.

It is time for Dallas’ rushing attack to step up, and for Tony Romo (69.4%, 7.6 yards per attempt) to get quicker passes out.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve the MNF odds on this game:

• Five of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total
• New York has covered four of the last five meetings
• Eleven of the last 16 games in Dallas have gone UNDER the total

When you look at these teams, you’re seeing a couple of sides that have had a real statistical advantage over their opponents. The Cowboys have 23 more first downs than their opponents and has outgained them by 119 yards a game.

The Giants have forty more first downs than their foes and a 106-yard edge per game.

We don’t want to get overly esoteric with the numbers, but what we’re trying to say is that these teams are high-functioning on the offensive side.

If the Cowboys are able to avoid silly mistakes, they’ll do much better than otherwise, both straight-up and in the MNF odds, but Dallas, which has passed the ball about 63% of the time and has had to gain 19.6 yards for every point they’ve scored, can find the end zone, a state of affairs that becomes greatly enhanced if Dez Bryant is able to make it to post in relatively good condition.

In those instances where they have not been successful at sacking the opposing passer, these defenses have not been so stingy. When using the "yards per point" model, the Giants have allowed a point for every 13.5 yards by foes, while with the Cowboys the number is 12.7.

Since 2007, if you have been looking for defensive battles between these two, you have largely gone to the wrong place, as five of the last seven have gone "over" the total. This number looks very reasonable to us, so we’re expecting to exceed it in the MNF odds for the Cowboys-Giants game.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 44.5 ****
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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