MLB Underdog Pick – Florida Marlins at New York Mets

MLB Baseball Betting Odds
Florida Marlins (11-7) at New York Mets (8-10)
Monday, April 27

BetOnline MLB betting odds:  Mets -155, Marlins +135, Total 9.5

Right-hander Anibal Sanchez (1-1, 2.50 ERA) gets this important assignment for the Marlins, while John Maine (0-2, 7.47 ERA), another righty, takes the mound for the Mets.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(Numbers go back to last season)

• FLA has lost its last six games
• FLA has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• FLA has won seven of its last ten road games
• FLA has played eight of its last 12 road games UNDER the total
• NY has lost five of its last seven games
• NY has won four of its last six home games
• NY has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

• FLA has won four of the last six meetings
• Seven of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Four of the last six meetings in New York have gone UNDER the total

The Marlins started out like a house afire, and though we knew they weren’t going to be able to keep up that kind of pace, we didn’t think they would fall to earth in such dramatic fashion. Florida has lost six games in a row, and Sunday’s 13-2 loss against Philadelphia was humiliating in so many ways, low-lighted by a bullpen that gave up eight runs in 4-1/3 innings. It was bad enough that Cody Ross, the right fielder, actually had to take the mound in the ninth inning to retire the Phillies without a run, serving the ball up to the plate at 84 miles an hour. In the last four games, Florida’s staff has given up 33 runs. That brought their average up to 4.94 runs allowed per contest, which ranks 13th in the league.

The Mets are having problems with some of their starting pitchers, including Oliver Perez, who was shelled in Sunday’s 8-2 loss to Washington. Jerry Manuel remains undecided as to what to do with some of his pitchers, including John Maine, who will take the hill tonight. But if recent history is any indication, the Mets may be in decent hands with Maine at the controls.

In his last three starts against Florida, Maine has worked 17 innings and given up just three earned runs while striking out 25. That includes a brilliant one-hit effort over 7-2/3 innings in September of 2007, where he struck out 14 members of the Marlins. On April 10, during Florida’s hot start, he went five decent innings, allowing only three Marlins to reach base, though Florida went on to win the game 5-4.

Anibal Sanchez has not done badly against the Mets either, including the April 10 matchup with Maine, when he shut out New York on four hits over five innings. Sanchez, of course, is the guy who was 10-3 in 2006, finishing ninth in the rookie of the year balloting. He hopes to get a full season out of his right arm after battling injuries the last couple of seasons. We’ve got confidence that the Marlins won’t continue to lose like they have been, and so we’re going to take the +135 with underdog Florida in the BetOnline National League Sportsbook.

JAY’S PLAY:  FLORIDA (+135) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)