MLB Sportsbook – New York Mets Take on Marlins to Open Season on April 1

The New York Mets travel to Florida to take on the Marlins as underdogs in the online baseball sports betting book on Friday, April 1.

I’m not going to get into the issues surrounding the Mets and their financial problems.  That’s for the dudes on CNBC.  I’m going to just study the game and pick the best possible wager.

New York Mets (0-0) at Florida Marlins (0-0)

Where:  Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida

When:  April 1, 2011 at 7:10 pm EST

TV:  TBD

Baseball Betting Lines

New York Mets                       +159                O 7

Mike Pelfrey – R         

Florida Marlins             -169                 U 7

Joe Johnson – R

MLB Betting Trends

• The New York Mets are 1 and 6 in Mike Pelfrey’s last 7 starts on the road.
• The New York Mets are 2 and 7 in their last 9 games as the underdog.
• The Florida Marlins are 1 and 4 in Joe Johnson’s last 5 starts as a favorite.
• The Florida Marlins are 25 and 9 in Joe Johnson’s last 34 home starts.

I’m not a big fan of laying 169 bucks in the MLB betting book, but I really don’t see how I can wager on the Mets to win this game on Friday night.  The Mets are a team in disarray before the season has even started.  NYM is not only going through serious financial troubles, but they’re just not, well, a very good team.  Yet, it seems like they believe that they’re a good team.

At least, that was their attitude last season.  The New York Mets starting line up on opening day shouldn’t in the least bit bother Joe Johnson.  JJ went 11 and 6 last season with a 2.30 ERA and a very good 1.24 WHIP.  Johnson figures to be much better against the Mets on Friday than a lot of baseball fans believe since Joe did have to end his 2010 short because of shoulder and back problems.

The 7 shut out inning he pitched in a minor league game in his tune up for this start on Friday was perfect, in my opinion.  Again, it’s not like JJ is facing one of the best batting line ups in the National League or anything.  The baseball odds would probably be around JJ -210 in this game if it wasn’t for the injury issues from last season.  That should tell baseball handicappers all that they need to know about this game.

On offense, the Marlins have a decent batting line up anchored by Hanley Ramirez.  Ramirez is coming off of a down year where he just didn’t do nearly as well as many expected in 2010.  But Hanley has taken the off-season to really improve as a defender.  That should help him improve as a hitter.  I’m hoping to see that improvement on Friday with Ramirez busting some good offense against the Mets.

The Mets send Mike Pelfrey to the mound.  Pelfrey’s lifetime ERA is over 4.50.  That’s not a good thing when the man sitting in the dugout ready to duel him into submission is Joe Johnson.  Pelfrey has also provided some disturbing stats the last three seasons like his 1.67 strikeouts-per-walk ratio.  If Pelfrey isn’t at the very top of his game on Friday, then the Marlins should beat the Mets by at least two runs meaning that a baseball betting wager on the run line might be the way to go.

Any way I look at this game, I get the same view.  My view is that the Florida Marlins, behind awesome starter Joe Johnson, will dominate the New York Mets on Friday night.  I see Florida winning this game.

MLB Betting Pick:  Florida Marlins -169