MLB Saturday Picks – After Tough Series Against the Yankees, Phillies Take on the Twins

After going 1 and 2 in a 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox, the Philadelphia Phillies bounced back to go 2 and 1 in a 3-game series against the New York Yankees. 

Things don’t get any easier this weekend when the Phillies take on the very, very good Minnesota Twins.  Philadelphia will most likely be the favorite in the MLB sportsbook in all 3 of their games against the Twins starting on Friday night. 

Because of that, the best baseball betting game between the Twins and Phillies might be on Saturday when two evenly matched pitchers, Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey and Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, take to the mound.

Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Where:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

When:  June 19th, 2010 at 4:10 pm EST

TV:  Minnesota – FSN
        Philadelphia – CSN

Radio:  Minnesota – 1500 ESPN, BOB FM, KGBY 107.5
            Philadelphia – WPHT 1210, WUBA 1480

The MLB betting trends appear to favor Slowey and the Twins.

• The Minnesota Twins are 16 and 4 in Kevin Slowey’s last 20 starts with 5 days of rest.
• The Minnesota Twins are 8 and 2 in Kevin Slowey’s last 10 interleague game starts.
• The Minnesota Twins are 59 and 23 in their last 82 interleague games.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are 3 and 13 in their last 16 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are 2 and 7 in their last 9 interleague games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are 7 and 19 in their last 26 interleague games at home.

The trends appear to favor the Twins in this game and I’m not going against those trends.

Hamels has been decent in 2010 with a 6 and 5 record, a 3.74 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP, but Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey has been just as good when going 7 and 4 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.

Somehow, someway, the Twins respond to Slowey and, save for his last game where he allowed 6 hits and 5 runs in only 4.2 inning pitched, Slowey has been terrific in his last 4 starts.  Before the last game debacle, Slowey had allowed only 4 runs and 20 hits in 25.4 innings pitched.  He should bounce back off of that horrible effort in his last to pitch very well against the Phillies.

Hamels is coming off of a terrific effort against the Boston Red Sox when allowing only 1 run off of 5 hits.  Although he and Philadelphia will be tough tomorrow, they won’t offer any value in the baseball betting sportsbook to gamblers and might be over-bet because of their terrific series victory over the New York Yankees.

It makes sense to bet the Twins in this case.  They will be the underdog and Slowey should respond with a decent outing after pitching so badly in his last.

MLB Sportsbook Pick:  Minnesota Twins