MLB Predictions – Liriano and the Twins Make the Most of Home-Field Advantage vs Tigers

Our Monday night MLB predictions take us to Target Field for a good old fashioned AL Central grudge match between the 2nd place Detroit Tigers and 1st place Minnesota Twins.

The Tigers enter this intriguing baseball betting set with the rival Twins off a disappointing showing on the NL road where they dropped four of six Interleague match-ups against the NL East representative New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. Manager Jim Leyland’s outfit has split its L/10 games (-$51) and enters the series opener winners in just 15 of its 28 (-$717) overall road games.

Interleague betting action hardly treated manager Ron Gardenhire’s club kindly as it amassed an 8-10 (-$240) overall mark after it just five of six against the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets. They’ll truly be psyched to return home to Target Field where they’ve tallied victories in 23 of their 36 9+$275) home games this season.

Detroit Tigers (40-34, +$472) vs. Minnesota Twins (41-34, +$103)

Game Date/Time: Monday, June 28th, 8:10 ET
Game Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
TV/Radio Broadcast: FOX-Detroit, FOX-North, XM

MLB Odds

Detroit Tigers                  +1.5 -155      +145
(Jeremy Bonderman – R)
Minnesota Twins              -1.5 +135      -165
(Francisco Liriano – L)
Total                               7.5 O -120     7.5 U Even

Though he took the loss in his most recent start vs. the Mets, RHP Jeremy Bonderman showed just how much his maturation process has come along. The former fireballer has become more of a pitcher than a strikeout artist since coming back from the DL. He’s tossed 7+ innings in two of his L/3 outings, and has only hit the 100-pitch plateau twice in his L/10 starts; the last one saw him go eight innings.

The Tigers are 3-4 in Jeremy’s starts as a visitor this season where he owns a 6.02 ERA & 1.46 WHIP through 40.1 total IP. He’s struggled against the Twins throughout his career going 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA; this will be his first time facing them after getting a suspension when he plunked Delmon Young last October.

Opposing the rediscovered righty will be southpaw Francisco Liriano who loves throwing in the Twins new digs this season. Though he stands just 3-2 and Minny’s split his six home starts, his home ERA comes in at an impressive 2.30 and he’s allowed just 38 hits and 11 ER’s through 43 total IP.

He was pulled early in his last start against Milwaukee managing to go just five innings, so he should be fresh for this one. He’s dominated the Tigers in his eight career starts going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA & 0.92 WHIP; Minny’s 5-3 during that stretch.

MLB Insider Tip: as much as I’d like to back what looks to be a rabid dawg in this spot, I just don’t trust Bonderman enough to back him away from Comerica Park. His splits have shown MLB bettors that he’s an entirely different pitcher away from that venue, and each of his L/2 outings away from it have been far from quality.

Though the Tigers are 13-8 (+$470) against left-handers this season, the Twins have cashed an impressive six of seven times when installed home chalk up to -175 this season (+$420). Liriano is in much better form entering Game 1 of this series, and the Twins are a perfect 4-0 the L/4 times he took to the bump to open a series.

Though -160 is normally my cut-off for laying MLB chalk, my MLB predictions for this AL Central battle have Liriano and the Twins reacquainting themselves nicely with the Target Field faithful.

My MLB Prediction: Minnesota Twins (Liriano)